Wednesday, 17 August 2011

The stock-investing tip

Business Mirror

One of the most amazing events in human history was when some guy walking along the ocean shore first pried an oyster off the rocks, broke open the shell, and ate it raw.

I mean, think about it. If someone had not told you how delicious eating an oyster is, would you really want to be the first one to ever try it?

Investing in the stock market for the first time can be a traumatic experience. But why?

It is my strong belief that every person of reasonable financial means should have a stock-market investment. Buying shares is as liquid as a bank account. Share prices follow general economic trends and, therefore, it is fairly easy to predict price movement or at least direction over the long term. Returns are higher than any comparable liquid investment. Long-term share buyers can significantly reduce risk to a low and manageable level.

So why not invest?

Most non-investors have misconceptions about the market. It is a casino. It is all a manipulated game. The little guy can never profit and on and on. All of those ideas are in some sense true and all of them are false.

Ever watched professional poker playing on television? You see some player win the top tournament prize of a million dollars and you might think, what a lucky person. Nonsense. Luck plays a role just in the same way it does in any professional sport.

What you do not see is that player has spent 10 years studying the game, knows all the mathematical odds of the cards, and has played a million hands to understand how other people play the game.

It is not gambling any more than the stock market if you have done your homework and learned the knowledge.

A first-time investor should always buy the company and not the stock. Who do you bank with? BPI? Do they give you good service? Is the bank full with customers when you go there? Does it seem like they appreciate your business? Why not own a piece of the company.

In January 2006, you could have bought BPI shares for P38. It closed yesterday at P58.80 for a 54-percent increase or about 10 percent return per year. It has also paid you P11.00 per share in cash dividends, increasing your return to 80 percent over five years. They also gave you 40 percent more stock. Altogether your total return in the last five years is 150 percent.

You saw the global financial markets explode. Philippine politics was business as usual during that period. The price of BPI even dropped to a loss a P35. But had you just put it away not caring about the daily ups and downs of both the Philippines and BPI, your P100,000 investment would now be worth P250,000.

You did not have to wait for and believe the hot stock tip from your brother-in-law. You did not have to be a member of the “Old-Boys Club.” You did not even have to follow the price movement more than once a week or so. All you had to do was buy the company you do business with.

Other examples? San Miguel gave a 110-percent return since 2006. Do you buy your electricity from Meralco? You should have also bought the stock. It has risen from P13 in 2006 to P250 and paid another P17 per share in cash.

Buy the shares of companies you know, not some company that is going to turn salt water into gold. That is for professional trades who buy and sell the stock and not the company. Traders make money off price movements, not the company. For my managed account trading portfolios, honestly, half the time I do not even know the name of the company, just the symbol. I do not care what the company does; I am trading price movements.

Investors on the other hand should know the company they own. Read the annual report. Go to shareholder meetings. See if the people sitting at the head table are the kind of group that you would do business with. Monitor the company you own. Talk to the average employees. If your bank branch has a new manager every few months, is it because the bank is growing and there are promotions? Or is it because they hate working there.

Remember what the foundation of a stock market is. Companies come to the market to sell a portion of their ownership to raise cash for company improvement. You are buying the company not the stock.

On a personal note, you can follow me on Twitter @mangunonmarkets.

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Monday, 15 August 2011

Market strategies for confused times

Business Mirror

WHEN stock prices become volatile, moving widely both up and down, investors and traders alike are looking for sound strategic principles that they can rely on to limit losses.

Last week was probably one of the most volatile trading periods of the Philippine Stock Exchange in the last 20 years. We were down (2.4 percent), down (4 percent), up (3 percent), and then flat, and flat again over those five days. In fact, the net change for the blue-chip index was only 115 points or 2.6 percent, which is frankly, not a hugely big deal.

However, there is nothing that frightens investors more than the way the market traded last week.

We started with two significant days down followed by healthy recovery on Wednesday. And then on Thursday prices went crazy, pleasantly crazy with an early-morning 100-point drop followed by a complete turnaround to close almost unchanged. By the way, the newspaper reporting about Thursday trading is what drives me crazy. The headline read; “PSE ekes out 0.5 percent gain.” The implication was that the market barely moved higher. Nonsense. The market moved 100 points higher.

Of the 70+ issues included in the PSE Strategy Guide, the average net change for last week was 1.7 percent down which is not bad. However, if you owned individual issues like PLDT, which was off 7 percent or Aboitiz Equity down 6.8 percent, it was a rough week. Even seeing your stocks go higher in a down market like SanMig Brewery (+7 percent) can cause confusion, not knowing if you should take profits or wait.

Let me say that last week’s trading on the New York Stock Exchange showed some of the most blatant intervention by the US government in the stock market that I have seen in my 30 years of trading the markets. No, I take that back. No one can manipulate a financial market like the Chinese. When the Hong Kong Futures Exchange went down, the chairman unilaterally closed the market for a few days. In 1988 the Hong Kong government announced it would buy shares to push prices higher. I wonder if we could get our Department of Finance to do that here. I have a fine list of stocks they might want to start buying tomorrow. Sure would help out my personal wealth creation.

Nonetheless, we are familiar and are used to central bank intervention in the foreign-exchange markets, but rarely do we experience the government pushing stock prices around. After two disastrous days on Monday and Tuesday that saw the index down 800 points, suddenly in the last two hours of trading on Tuesday prices rallied, erasing almost all of the previous 36 hours of losses. Wednesday opened and prices continued lower to close at the low of the day.

Miraculously, Thursday was nearly all one direction trading: up as if the global financial problems had disappeared overnight. Friday’s trading went sideways as sellers found buyers who were not buying when the index was at 10,800 but who now wanted to buy at 11,200.

As the Federal Reserve has a group that monitors and can intervene in the forex markets, so, too, does the Department of Treasury that “monitors” the stock markets.

Understand this is not like buying P200,000 worth of some P5 stock to have it close a little higher. US government intervention means buying hundreds of millions of dollars worth of shares. It must be good to own the money printing presses.

So what do you do when you see your shares dropping in a stock market that you are being told is collapsing?

Common sense says to sell immediately when the first support price is broken. That takes high discipline and nerves of steel, which most of us lose in the heat of the stock-market battle.

Longer-term investors are inclined to take falling prices as a buying opportunity, knowing that sound national and corporate fundamentals, like we have in the Philippines, will bring the price higher eventually. The concept is called averaging down. There is nothing wrong with averaging your price. However, I do not recommend buying when prices are falling. It is better to “average down” when the trend has changed and prices are going up. You will not have bought at the low, but you will not be buying as prices are going lower.

For issues going higher in a declining market, I think that it is always prudent to lighten the load by selling part of your position to put some of your profits in your pocket.

The low for the week was at the 4,130 support area. We closed above the important 4,300 line. Life and the market are still good. On a personal note, you can follow me on Twitter @mangunonmarkets.

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