What' s Up In The Philippines

Are you a stock investor or trader?

2012-01-26T19:33:00.001+08:00

JOHN MANGUN
OUTSIDE THE BOX
Business Mirror
http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/opinion/22453-are-you-a-stock-investor-or-trader

SAN Miguel Corp. (SMC) began as a brewery in 1890 selling one product. Within 20 years, the company was exporting San Miguel beer to Hong Kong, Shanghai and Guam.

Exactly 122 years later, San Miguel is still making one beer and exports to those same three locations.

Not exactly true is it?

In 2012, San Miguel is an extremely diversified conglomerate with major business interests in energy, food, beverages, property, mining, telecoms, banking, infrastructure and fuel.

Even its brewery subsidiary manufactures a variety of beer products and the company has factories in Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia, and sells their products in 60 nations around the world.

In the period between 1890 and 1910, San Miguel must have been a profitable firm with a good product to be able to expand and prosper in Hong Kong, Shanghai and Guam. San Mig must have been doing pretty well after that, despite the wars and global depression because in 1948 it built the first local brewery in Hong Kong.

No, this is not a discussion about San Miguel. However, note a couple of things. If La Fabrica de Cerveza de San Miguel Inc. were now making one product with three export markets, it would still be a successful financial venture. However, it would not be SMC with a stock-market value of $6.5 billion.

In order to be consistently and continuously successful in any financial venture, you must change your strategy.

When speaking of people who buy shares of companies on a stock market, conventional wisdom divides the group into “investors” and “traders”.

Investors supposedly holding for the longer term and are more conservative. Traders play the short-term movements and are taking higher risk. You are supposed to be one or the other and cannot be both.

Certain believers in this investment philosophy will give you examples, such as the fact that over a 12-year period, the Bombay stock exchange has increased by an annual rate of 16 percent. That sounds like a pretty good investment.

Even better is the Jakarta stock market, which over 20 years grew at an annual rate of 20 percent. So everyone should simply, without any worries, just buy and hold.

There are two major flaws to the idea of being a “long-term investor.”

Had you decided to be one of these long-termers in January 2008 on the Bombay exchange, you would now be down 20 percent. And in Jakarta, since September 2011, that exchange is up 28 percent.

Therefore, timing is a key to making money. San Miguel built that Hong Kong brewery before the Asian miracle. I guess that’s being an investor.

Further, your strategy must be suitable for the local stock market. Over 15 years, the Philippine Stock Exchange index has risen at an annual rate of 5 percent. You might have done better buying lotto tickets.

Since the October 2008 low, the PSE is up 125 percent. Not a bad return in three years. However, the real key to investing is to be able to adjust to buying and selling not only at the proper time but the proper issues. I doubt if San Mig ever conceived of making an apple- or lemon-flavored beer as they are now. I guess that’s being a trader.

Yes, holding for a longer term can be profitable. Since 2000, holding San Mig shares would have made you 140 percent. Holding PLDT shares would have made you 250 percent. But Ayala Corp. only advanced 35 percent in 12 years.

So all that means is you should have bought PLDT, not Ayala. No. Ayala was the stock to buy. From 2003 to 2005 up 100 percent; from 2006 to 2008 up 170 percent; from 2009 to 2012 up 130 percent. But isn’t that long-term investing? No, it is trading because from 2005 to 2006, you were out of the stock. Same with 2008 to 2009.

And Ayala is up 15 percent this month.

You do not want to get locked into an unproductive mindset of “I’m only an investor/I’m only a trader.” Either way you will never maximize profits and you will increase your risk. You must recognize, follow, and trade both short and longer price trends.

Investors must be traders, moving money in and out with trends and opportunities. Traders must be investors by looking at the price history and longer trends to avoid traps.

On a personal note, my one-day stock trading seminar is scheduled for March 3 in Cebu. I will discuss trading techniques, stock selection and practical technical analysis. The selection of venue and other details are almost completed. E-mail me at john@mangunonmarkets.com and I will keep you informed.

PSE stock-market information and technical-analysis tools were provided by CitisecOnline.com Inc. E-mail comments to mangun@email.com.

Gokongwei group builds $50-m flying center in Clark

2012-01-25T12:58:00.000+08:00

Eric B. Apolonio, Joyce Pangco Pañares
Manila Standard

OFFICIALS on Tuesday broke ground for a $50-million aviation training center, a joint venture between Cebu Pacific and CAE of Montreal, Canada, at the Clark Aviation Complex in Mabalacat, Pampanga.

The groundbreaking was attended by President Benigno Aquino lll, Transport Secretary Mar Roxas, Finance Secretary Cezar Purisima, Tourism Secretary Ramon Jimenez, Technical Education and Sills Development Authority Secretary Joel Villanueva, and top Cebu Pacific officials John and Lance Gokongwei.

The joint venture will establish the Philippine Academy for Aviation Training Inc. in Clark, which is expected to train people to fill the increasing demand for pilots, cabin crew, dispatch and ground-handling staff.

Jollibee completes SuperFoods buy-in

2012-01-25T11:00:00.001+08:00

MIGUEL R. CAMUS
Business Mirror

JOLLIBEE Foods Corp. (JFC) completed on Tuesday its acquisition of a 50-percent stake in the SuperFoods Group as it eyes new expansion areas in China and Southeast Asia, a filing to the Philippine Stock Exchange showed.

SuperFoods owns and operates various brands including Highlands Coffee shops in Vietnam, Highlands Coffee packaged products and Hard Rock Café franchised stores in Macau, Hong Kong and Vietnam. It also owns the Pho24 restaurant brand with operations in Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, Hong Kong, Cambodia and Japan.

Read more: http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/companies/22368-jollibee-completes-superfoods-buy-in

PHL could attract $75-B FDI

2012-01-25T10:58:00.001+08:00

MAX V. DE LEON
Business Mirror

BUSINESS groups belonging to the Joint Foreign Chambers (JFC) on Tuesday expressed confidence of increased foreign investments this year that could amount to $75 billion, with investors beginning to take notice of the administration’s policy reforms to improve the business climate.

Last year the group forwarded to Malacañang 471 recommendations to propel the growth of seven “big winner sectors” in the country. It said the proposals, if implemented, would allow the country to attract about $75 billion in foreign direct investments (FDI).

Read more: http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/top-news/22407-phl-could-attract-75-b-fdi

See also: http://main.investphilippines.info/

Trade Sec: ‘It’s very possible that we can exceed our 2010 growth’

2012-01-24T18:01:00.001+08:00

BusinessWorld

TRADE SECRETARY Gregory L. Domingo, along with undersecretaries Adrian S. Cristobal, Jr. and Cristino S. Panlilio, sat down with BusinessWorld editors and reporters last Friday for a wide-ranging discussion on issues confronting the country.

Click here for excerpts of that talk: (http://www.bworld.com.ph/content.php?section=TopStory&title=%E2%80%98It%E2%80%99s-very-possible-that-we-can-exceed-our-2010-growth%E2%80%99&id=45533).

Citra, San Miguel start work to upgrade SLEx

2012-01-24T17:44:00.002+08:00

Citra, San Miguel start work to upgrade SLEx
Kathleen A. Martin
BusinessWorld
http://www.bworld.com.ph/content.php?section=Corporate&title=Citra,-San-Miguel-start-work-to-upgrade-SLEx&id=45515

SAN MIGUEL Corp. and the Indonesia-based Citra group have started to put in place enhancements at their recently acquired South Luzon Expressway (SLEx).

Automated toll collection systems have been put in place in an additional exit of the 36-kilometer thoroughfare while the construction of more parking bays are slated next, a statement yesterday showed.

“With the E-Pass service now available at [Ayala Greenfield] toll plaza, motorists with E-Pass going to or coming from Sto. Tomas, Batangas can now enjoy faster entry-exit at said toll plaza where there are two dedicated E-Pass lanes,” the Citra group said.

E-Pass is an electronic toll collection system used in the SLEx that allows for faster entry and exit in the said highway for users’ convenience.

The Citra group said it will now be installing additional lay-bys or parking bays and reflectors along the SLEx.

Moreover, the Citra Group and San Miguel plan to upgrade the systems in all toll plazas along the thoroughfare.

Earlier this month, San Miguel’s wholly-owned subsidiary San Miguel Holdings Corp. and the Citra group acquired an 80% stake in South Luzon Tollway Corp., the concessionaire for the SLEx.

The Citra group is composed of Indonesian firms PT Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada Tbk, PT Citra Lamtoro Gung Persada, Bhaskara Duniajaya and Matra Sarana Arsitama.

San Miguel and the Citra group also jointly hold a majority stake in Citra Metro Manila Tollways Corp., the concessionaire behind the South Metro Manila Skyway, which connects directly to SLEx.

The two entities were also invited to conduct due diligence on an expansion project for the Southern Tagalog Arterial Road (STAR Tollway).

Togetherm the two have lined up the following projects: a thoroughfare connecting Laguna to Lucena, Skyway Stage 3 linking the existing Skyway to Balintawak and the Stage 4 which will link Skyway to Taguig City.

Unsung heroes of Clark, Subic

2012-01-24T10:52:00.000+08:00

By: Dennis L. Wright
Philippine Daily Inquirer
Read more: http://business.inquirer.net/41087/unsung-heroes-of-clark-subic

There is a remarkable story that needs to be told. It is a story of 21 leaders from different political parties and from various business backgrounds who came together in the past two decades to set an example that is unrivaled in world governments.
The story is about the transformation of the two former US military installations in Subic and Clark into highly successful and vibrant commercial and business centers of excellence.

This is nothing short of phenomenal, and illustrates the art of the possible and what can be accomplished with a clear and focused strategic vision and agenda that is articulated by a government and executed by a cadre of dedicated civil servants working to achieve the stated objective.

What makes this story so remarkable is that it unfolded under the radar screen of the Manila political and business elite. That is to say it happened without the traditional Philippine national political machine and business dynasties being involved or leading the way—as Subic and Clark have been, by and large, out of sight and out of mind on the national scene.

Consider that at the height of the American military era in the Philippines, the US government employed around 44,000 full-time Filipino employees.

Today, the workforce population at Subic and Clark exceeds 160,000, which is a fourfold increase. Add to this some 2,000 locators, most of whom are foreign, who now call Subic and Clark home, and the $9 billion they have invested with over $3 billion in annual exports—you quickly see an enviable record of accomplishment that any community would be proud of.

What makes this story unique is that it is not the result of any one single person, but rather, the culmination of many leaders, from different political parties who worked collectively to transform two badly damaged former US military installations into vibrant and commercially successful freeports.

What BSP does not understand about money

2012-01-24T10:28:00.000+08:00

JOHN MANGUN
OUTSIDE THE BOX
Business Mirror
http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/opinion/22348-what-bsp-does-not-understand-about-money

THE Philippines has been fortunate over the years to have a central bank led by competent managers. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has usually taken seriously its mandate “to maintain price stability conducive to balanced and sustainable economic growth.” In other words, to control inflation.
The BSP has maintained its political independence for the most part, keeping its policies and actions outside the realm of what might be politically favorable to any and every administration.

It is a formidable job to do and the BSP has been subject to great criticism for not going along with every government policy that was supposed to be good for the economy.

That may have just changed and not necessarily for the better.

Interest rates are the main weapon that the BSP has to keep the economy from “overheating.” An economy that is overheating is one where there is much activity but not necessarily activity that creates sustainable and long-term wealth creation. China has built housing units for 60 million people that are currently unoccupied. The construction of that housing provided a quick fix to their economy and pumped billions into the economic system. However, there are not any long-term benefits to empty apartments.

The BSP controls how much money is in the system and controls the cost of using that money through setting the base interest rates. Too much money at too cheap a price in the system can cause consumption to increase without an increase in production: inflation. Or as in China’s case, an equally harmful increase in production without an increase in consumption: a form of deflation.

The BSP just lowered interest rates by 0.25 percent. “The Monetary Board has concluded that the benign inflation outlook allowed some scope for a reduction in policy rates to help boost economic activity and support market confidence.”

Notice the language. The BSP expects inflation to be low in 2012, so they are lowering interest rates to help stimulate the economy.

You see how this goes against its mandate. The mandate says interest-rate policy is a tool to keep inflation in control, that is, by not allowing too much unproductive money in the economic system.

But now the BSP is saying because the tool it uses to control inflation is working so well, we are going to use that tool for another purpose. Inflation in the Philippines ran at about 4.8 percent in 2011. Look at some other nations’ inflation rates that have used interest rates to “stimulate” their economies: Germany/5.7, Brazil/6.5, Russia/7, India/9.3, and Argentina/9.5. The US has done the same thing with rates and while inflation is 3 percent, there has not been any increase in economic growth.

The downside is that real interest rates, the difference between what you get for your bank deposits and inflation, is now negative. You lose purchasing power keeping money in the bank.

The BSP wants you to take that money out and go build a business, not just spend for goodies because that could be inflationary.

But what the BSP and the administration does not understand is money in the bank and money in a business is not the same thing.

You keep money in the bank because it is immediately available, liquid, and it requires none of your attention. The BSP wants you to take out your P1 million and buy a bunch of food kiosks because that would be good for the economy. But you will not do that. It is an apples and mangoes comparison.

So if you want funds that are liquid and will make you a return higher than inflation, where will you go with your investment? Three words: Philippine Stock Exchange.

We are seeing that happening every day at the stock market. And investors will make more money in stocks than in food kiosks with a lot less headaches.

The other fallacy of the BSP’s decision is what they will do when inflation goes up if oil prices spike 20 percent. The BSP will probably raise interest rates, killing their economic-stimulus idea.

Would the stock market fall if that happened? Very briefly because if inflation rose to, say, 6 percent and the BSP raised rates back to where they were before this cut, negative interest rates would be even worse, making stocks even more attractive to investors.

There is an old saying, “If it’s not broken, don’t try to fix it.” Now buy the PSE and make a great return on your investment.

On a personal note, my stock-trading seminar is scheduled for March 3 in Cebu. I will discuss trading techniques, stock selection, and simple, practical technical analysis. E-mail me at john@mangunonmarkets.com and I will keep you informed.

E-mail to mangun@gmail.com and Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by CitisecOnline.com Inc.

GIR At $75.3B, Surpasses Target

2012-01-21T17:14:00.000+08:00

Final BSP Tally For 2011
By LEE C. CHIPONGIAN
Manila Bulletin
http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/348772/gir-at-753b-surpasses-target

MANILA, Philippines — The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) yesterday released the final tally for gross international reserves (GIR) for 2011 of $75.3 billion, higher than previous announcement earlier this month of $75.13 billion.

The BSP on schedule reports preliminary GIR data and usually revise same data at the end of every month as additional data are inputted such as foreign exchange balances.

The full-year 2011 projection was $70 billion but because of higher external accounts from capital inflows and stable remittances, GIR exceeded the target once more.

The 2011 final GIR is 20.73 percent higher or $12.93 billion more than end-2010's $62.37 billion. The highest GIR recorded last year was in November when it reached $76.2 billion.

The Philippine foreign exchange reserves have provided an important buffer for the country, especially during the economic and financial crisis. The GIR and the balance of payments surplus of $10.18 billion in 2011 reflected the country’s strong exports, remittances, sovereign bond issuance, and other capital inflows.

Data from the BSP said foreign investments, a major part of GIR, amounted to $65.27 billion as of end-December from 2010’s $53.44 billion. Gold reserves, in the meantime, totaled $8 billion from the previous year’s $7 billion.

The BSP said the current GIR level is adequate enough to cover 11.1 months worth of imports and goods and payments of services and income. It was also equivalent to 10.5 times the country’s short-term external debt based on original maturity and 6.8 times based on residual maturity.

The bulk of the BSP’s reserves, or more than 87 percent of the total GIR are in foreign investments while almost 10 percent are in gold holdings. Other small reserves are the combined holdings of foreign exchange as well as Special Drawing Rights and the BSP’s reserve position in the IMF.

In terms of currency composition, 74 percent of the total reserves are denominated in US dollars, 16 percent in yen, four percent in euro, and the balance are in SDRs and other currencies.

The HSBC report

2012-01-20T10:45:00.001+08:00

http://www.zawya.com/images/features/120115-hsbc-02.gif

A large population is a king's glory, but without subjects a prince is ruined. -- Proverbs 14:28

Rainstorms and sandstorms

2012-01-19T17:58:00.001+08:00

JOHN MANGUN
OUTSIDE THE BOX
Business Mirror
http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/opinion/22142-rainstorms-and-sandstorms

ECONOMIC “experts” like me have never had it any better. It seems like we have waited our whole lives for a situation to happen like the world has experienced in the last few years. It gives us the opportunity to talk and talk and talk.

Understand that for us, it is like watching a chess match, making comments on every move and giving our “expert” opinion of what should have been played and what will happen next. However, we do serve a useful and maybe even important purpose by hopefully getting people to think about what is happening even if their final comment is that we do not know what we are talking about.

The one thing we “experts” do know is that the situation globally is very unique. There have been many other times that there has been major, even global economic turmoil but it has never been like this for two serious reasons.

I know I have spoken of this many, many times before, but the economic world changed when all nations no longer backed their currencies with any hard asset in 1971.

Currency debasement has occurred for thousands of years when governments reduced the gold or silver content of coins. But people easily understood that. If the new coin contained half as much gold as the old coin, the seller simply charged twice as much. That’s currency induced inflation. But by the same token, eventually wages doubled the same way.

The German Weimar Republic printed trillions of pieces of currency to pay their foreign debt causing hyperinflation. Yet they still had gold in the vault. What they were doing was protecting their hard assets.

The second factor now is the overwhelming influence of the global central banks to influence and actually make monetary policy. And much of that policy is based on what the governments see as good politics rather than good economics.

There are two thoughts about where all this bad government policy is leading. One is super high inflation as trillions upon trillions of dollars, euros and other currencies are poured into the system. That on paper will avoid a global recession as this money should create economic output even if it does not create any real wealth. I like to think of that as a rainstorm.

Rainstorms are hard because you have to fight your way through the tempest to get any place. And you get wet, meaning there is damage. It takes longer to drive somewhere. Accidents happen more frequently. You need to buy wiper blades more often. You do not make as much money, your wealth cannot grow because it costs more to do your business.

Prices go much higher but income stays the same or goes down. You just cannot make any real economic headway.

The other idea is that the government policy to allow debt defaults and bank and company failures will create deflation as economic activity greatly slows down. Standards of living are reduced. More unemployment combined with a fall in both production and prices as people simply do not have the money to buy goods and services to create any significant economic growth.

I think of that as a sandstorm. Traveling during a sandstorm is not that difficult. But finding your way can be almost impossible. You think you are going the right way and suddenly you find that you have been going in the opposite direction. And when you get someplace, there is nothing there.

Companies cut costs to make profits and prices to attract customers and yet there are still no buyers. Companies and people reach a point where they have no idea how to cut back any more. It is an economic desert.

The worst case is what happened in the 1970s, a combination of both rain and sand. And what do you get? A mudstorm. High inflation caused by too much money in the system and very little economic activity. Another term is stagflation.

Stagflation is likely as governments swing between more money in the system and trying to deal with rising inflation.

Why do you think you have seen so many recent studies about how great countries like the Philippines are? Global money knows what the prospects are in the West and the new sweetheart economies like China and Brazil.

The Philippines has a large enough domestic economy to support economic activity and is not burdened with large amounts of public and private debt. It’s all sunshine in the Philippines.

On a personal note, I will be holding a one-day seminar on stock market trading in Cebu at the end of February. I will discuss trading techniques, stock selection, and practical technical analysis. E-mail me at john@mangunonmarkets.com and I will keep you informed.

****

E-mail to mangun@gmail.com and Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by CitisecOnline.com Inc.

SEAIR offers promo fares from Clark to 3 regional destinations

2012-01-18T14:31:00.003+08:00

Manila Bulletin
http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/348461/seair-offers-promo-fares-clark-3-regional-destinations

MANILA, Philippines — South East Asian Airlines (SEAIR), the Philippines’ premier leisure airline, is offering a special “Buy 2, Take 1” promo on flights from Clark to Bangkok, Singapore, and Hong Kong until January 25, 2012. The free airfare for every third passenger is valid for limited seats in flights booked online via www.FlySeair.com.

Promo is valid for travel on May 1 to June 30, 2012 for Hong Kong, February 1 to June 30, 2012 for Singapore, and March 1 to May 31, 2012 for Bangkok.

SEAIR also announced that it will increase its Clark-Bangkok-Clark flights to five times a week starting May 4, 2012. It will add flights on Fridays and Sundays to its current itinerary of Saturday, Monday, and Wednesday flights.

From March to June, the Bangkok summer calendar is filled with traditional celebrations such as the Makha Bucha Buddhist full moon festival on March 7 when worshippers flock the temples for the wian tian candlelight procession, the Songkran or Thai New Year on April 13-15 which is usually celebrated with ‘water-throwing’ to symbolize purification, and Coronation Day on May 5 which honors the king of Thailand. Modern festivities include the Bangkok International Fashion Week slated for mid-Marchand La Fete music festival in June.

SEAIR distributes its international seats at www.tigerairways.com, through its partnership with Tiger Airways. It is the first Tiger Airways Partner Airline in the Asia Pacific. The airline uses the 144-seater Airbus 319 aircraft for all its regional flights.

SEAIR is the Philippines' second oldest airline, and is the first airline basedin Clark. It has the reputation of having pioneered commercial flights to the country's fastest growing tourist destinations including Boracay, Batanes, and northern Palawan. Now on its 16th year of operation, SEAIR is expanding its reach regionally with its jet services to Bangkok, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Macau.

Global Growth Slows to 3.9% as O’Neill Sees BRICs Diminished by Population

2012-01-17T10:41:00.001+08:00

Aging and shrinking labor pools are also poised to curb expansion across the other so-called BRIC nations that contributed almost half of global growth in the past decade. With fewer youths keeping factories going and more pensioners to support in those markets, the world economy is set to slow, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) says.

Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-02/global-growth-slows-to-3-9-as-o-neill-sees-brics-diminished-by-population.html

How can the PSE be going up?

2012-01-17T10:09:00.001+08:00

John Mangun
http://www.mangunonmarkets.com/2012/01/how-can-the-pse-be-going-up-january-122012/

TERRORIST threats. Impeachment proceedings. Corruption charges. Global-debt meltdown. Slower economic growth.

The PSE Composite Index reaching a historic high close was absolutely predictable, almost inevitable. In fact, on December 14, 2011, I wrote that the market could reach 5,000 in 2012. That is only about 8 percent higher than where we are now. We can advance higher than that based on the domestic internals that are fueling this market rally.

The Phisix index is up 22 percent in the last three-and-a-half months. Has there been any good news in that time?

How can Philippine Stock Exchange share prices be going up?

One word: money—massive amounts of foreign and domestic money looking for investment opportunities.

For many months, I have been saying there will be very large inflows of capital into the Philippines. And yet foreign direct investment, which all the “experts” worry so much about, is down 24.7 percent over 2010. But even that number is false.

In 2011 foreign companies poured money into their Philippine ventures like call centers and other subsidiaries, resulting in a net inflow of $258 million. But this was 47 percent lower than in 2010 when the net inflow was $490 million. When a foreign company sets up a local subsidiary, they loan the money to the locally registered company to get it started. It is a onetime funding placement and the foreign company does not have to loan much more money to sustain the operation if it is successful.

However, massive amounts of portfolio money did come into the country in 2011.

In the first 10 months of 2011, $7.4 billion was invested in PSE listed stocks. Foreign-investor interest in peso-denominated government securities hit $6.3 billion. That $7.4 billion is the equivalent of all the trading volume on the PSE for three months of trading days. But that only accounts through the end of October 2011. A total of $6.3 billion more was placed in government debt, probably short term.

In addition to the net $7.4 billion in stocks already, with the government signaling as much as a 50 basis points or one half-percent drop in interest rates, some of that $6.3 billion has gone into stocks during the last quarter.

On the domestic side, there is a tremendous amount of money flowing through the economy. Money-supply growth accelerated to 7.2 percent in November, which means that there is more physical money in the economy that must go someplace.

Increasing money supply does often show up in higher inflation. But inflation is lower than the money-supply growth so that infusion of cash is not just going to buy things. It is for investment. Philippine inflation eased to an 11-month low last month.

Another source of money in the economy is lending and this is growing very well.

Outstanding loans of commercial banks grew at a faster rate of 21.7 percent over 2010 and increased at double-digit rates almost every month during 2011.

Companies and consumers are borrowing for good reasons. Corporate loans for production purposes, expansion and the like, had a 22.9-percent growth. This was higher than the 10.7 percent in 2010. Growth in consumer loans also increased 17.9 percent.

Not all of the money is going into the PSE, which is also good. Demand deposits at the banks expanded by 12.4 percent.

However, it takes more than large amounts of money to fuel the stock market. It also takes confidence. It is a good thing to have a government that is sometimes inefficient and late to the party. The private sector in the Philippines is doing a very good job. Look at the banks. The banking system’s asset quality improved with the nonperforming loan ratio sustaining its downtrend path, at 3.3 percent as of end-September 2011 from 3.9 percent in 2011.

In spite of all the problems, local investors believe that maybe this year the administration will turn a little more to the economy. Foreign investors are looking to the Philippines as a safe haven, which is what I have been predicting for a long time. That time has finally come.

The PSE is going up and will continue to rise because the Philippines is rapidly becoming one of the best nations on earth to place funds. Of course, for sustainable economic development, it is all up to the government and its policy-makers. But the foundation of short-term confidence has been laid and the PSE performance is evidence of that.

If big local and foreign money is willing to invest short term in the PSE, it will go long term if the government gets economically serious.

Solo Ride to the Heart of the Philippines

2012-01-17T09:34:00.002+08:00

http://pinoyrider.com/welcoming-2012-solo-ride-to-the-heart-of-the-philippines/

PH to become 16th largest economy by 2050

2012-01-13T19:34:00.000+08:00

GROWING POPULATION IS A PLUS
SMALL AND AGING POPULATIONS TO GROW SLOWER
by Roderick T. dela Cruz
Manila Standard
http://www.manilastandardtoday.com/insideBusiness.htm?f=2012/january/13/business2.isx&d=2012/january/13

The Philippines will be one of the fastest-growing economies over the next four decades, with its gross domestic product predicted to be the 16th largest in the world by 2050.

Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corp. Global Research, in a report titled the World in 2050, said the Philippines looks set for a multi-decade run of strong growth to become the world’s 16th largest economy, up 27 places from today and ahead of all other Southeast Asian countries and even rich economies in Europe.

“Asia is the stand-out region—with a notable showing by the Philippines,” the HSBC report said. “The Philippines looks set for a multi-decade run of strong growth.”

From its 2010 status as the world’s 43rd largest economy with a GDP of $112 billion, the Philippines is projected to increase the size of its economy to $1.688 trillion, which will be the 16th largest by 2050.

The Philippines is seen to become the largest economy in Southeast Asia with $1.688 trillion in GDP by 2050, outranking Indonesia ($1.502 trillion), Malaysia ($1.16 trillion) and Thailand ($856 billion).

By 2050, the Philippine economy will also be larger than the likes of Australia, Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, Switzerland, South Africa, Austria, Sweden, Belgium, Singapore, Greece and Israel.

The report singled out the Philippines as the star performer during the period, “where the combination of strong fundamentals and powerful demographics gives rise to an average growth rate of 7 percent for the coming 40 years.”

It was based on the forecast that the per capita income of the Philippines will rise 6.1 percent annually from 2010 to 2020, 5.6 percent from 2020 to 2030, 5.2 percent from 2030 to 2040, and 4.8 percent from 2040 to 2050.

Per capita income of the Philippines will rise from $1,215 in 2010 to $10,893 while its population will increase from 93 million to 155 million during the period.

“Countries such as the Philippines, Peru and Nigeria all demonstrate some combination of favorable demographics and strong fundamentals that should see a significant rise in their economic size,” it said.

By 2050, China is projected to rise as the largest economy with $25.334 trillion, followed by the US with $22.27 trillion, India with $8.165 trillion, Japan with $6.429 trillion and Germany with $3.714 trillion.

From the BUSINESS MIRROR: http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/top-news/21915-hsbcs-projection-for-phl-169-t-economy-in-2050

HSBC’s projection for PHL: $1.69-T economy in 2050
JUN VALLECERA

THE Philippines is seen to become the 16th largest economy in the world by 2050—larger than even neighboring Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand or even oil-producing Saudi Arabia or the Netherlands.

The British-owned global lender HSBC made the forecast in a study projecting the size of 100 economies 40 years hence, expanding the same from the original 30-country review published last year.

HSBC said the Philippine economy were to expand from the puny $112 billion at present into a leviathan capable of generating output worth $1.69 trillion or 15 times larger.

“Our ranking is based on an economy’s current level of development and the factors that will determine whether it has the potential to catch up with more developed nations. These fundamentals include current income per capita, rule of law, democracy, education levels and demographic change, allowing us to project the gross domestic product [GDP] forward,” the bank said.

HSBC said the forecast upgrade in the country’s economic standing was less the result of an increase of individual prosperity than as a result of the impact of its expanding population.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Amando Tetangco Jr. earlier told reporters he considers the country’s rising population as a positive influence on growth rather than as contributor to eventual perdition.

From the MANILA TIMES: http://www.manilatimes.net/index.php/business/top-business-news/14941-philippine-economy-to-reach-16th-place-by-2050

“It is the small-population, ageing economies in Europe that are the big relative losers, seeing the biggest moves down the table,” HSBC said.

From BUSINESS WORLD: http://www.bworld.com.ph/content.php?section=TopStory&title=World%E2%80%99s-16th-largest-economy-by-2050?&id=44998

“There are some truly remarkable hot spots in Asia... The star performer, however, is the Philippines where the combination of strong fundamentals and powerful demographics gives rise to an average growth rate of 7% for the coming 40 years,” the report read.

INQUIRER: http://business.inquirer.net/39327/philippines-seen-among-top-20-economies-in-next-4-decades

HSBC said the Philippines was likely to post an average growth of 7 percent in the next 40 years.
Breaking down the average growth forecast, the bank said the country would likely grow by 8.4 percent from 2010 to 2020, by 7.3 percent from 2020 to 2030, and by 6.6 percent from 2030 to 2040, and by 5.8 percent from 2040 to 2050.

It's more fun in the Philippines

2012-01-12T10:54:00.007+08:00

A carefully curated Collection of all the FUN Things you can enjoy when you visit the Philippines!
http://pinterest.com/antondiaz/itsmorefuninthephilippines/

(For more information about this Philippines tourism campaign, please visit: http://oap.ph/ItsMoreFUNinthePhilippines)

The dark side of 2012

2012-01-10T16:49:00.002+08:00

JOHN MANGUN
OUTSIDE THE BOX
Business Mirror
http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/opinion/21750-the-dark-side-of-2012

THE sun is shining, the birds are singing, and Philippine Stock Exchange prices are advancing higher with incredible strength and momentum.
And the current controversy about the new tourism slogan has replaced impeachment and corruption trials as the biggest news story.

It is definitely time to look at the dark side, the very dark side.

While holding the highest respect for our local business journalists, to attribute our recent stock-market performance to all the good economic news coming from the US is just plain wrong. Stockbrokers do not help things by spreading this false information.

The latest good news is the “fact” that the US economy created 200,000 jobs in December, the highest in a long time. However, closer examination of the official data shows of that 200,000 new jobs, 55,000 of these were in “transportation and warehousing” and 42,000 new jobs in the “couriers and messengers” category. This happens every December and then, every January those numbers are revised downward to nearly zero after the Christmas holiday season.

Unless the US intends to build its $14-trillion economy with every working person having his own personal messenger, 2012 is not going to be any better than 2011. In my opinion, one year from now, many countries are going to wish the Mayans were right about the world ending in 2012.

We hear so much about the global debt situation but the discussion centers on those countries, so-called debt hot spots, which are at risk of not being able to pay their bills. But that is only the tip of the iceberg.

Total global debt in 2000 was $27 trillion. It skyrocketed to $42 trillion by 2005. At the end of 2007, the number was $51 trillion. Now total global debt is over $115 trillion.

The total global economic output, or global gross domestic product (GDP), is about $70 trillion. We talk about countries’ debt-to-GDP ratio, with anything over 100 percent being unsustainable. Yet the world is running at a minimum of 150-percent debt-to-GDP ratio.

And here is the dark side. The countries that account for most of the output also account for a disproportionately larger amount of the debt.

Economic activity cannot grow large enough or fast enough to pay this debt. The only reasonable alternative is to default, let the banks take the hit, and start over. But that is not going to happen. The bankers own the politicians in these countries.

So they must continue to borrow more to fund their debt repayments. But who is going to loan to them at the lowest interest in history? Further, the middle-class of the West is being drained dry, its productivity swallowed up by its governments through taxes.

Simply put, these countries are doomed and their economies will drown in this debt.

The average citizen in the West pays twice as much for a gallon of gas and 50 percent more for food since 2001 while taking home less pay. And that trend will continue and perhaps accelerate through 2012.

While the Occupy movement is nothing more than a leftist/liberal political ploy to further Obama’s chances at re-election despite a dying economy and presidency, genuine unrest has already happened in Europe and is happening now in China.

The profits of US corporations now equal over 10 percent of the GDP. That is the highest level in five decades. This also comes at a time when nearly half of all Americans depend on government handouts for at least some of their living expenses. This situation is completely unsustainable.

Chatham House, the London-based policy institute for international affairs, says the world economy is so fragile that it could sustain only one week of a major crisis, either natural or man-made. These would include a disease outbreak like SARS or a major Japan-style earthquake in the US. A disruption of oil supply from a military confrontation with Iran would also qualify.

Major social unrest lies just below the surface and could boil up at any time.

People in the West are not going to sit by and wait for disaster. They are moving both money and bodies out to other places. It is too bad our policy-makers are not aware of that fact in order to take advantage of it. Well, maybe the tourism secretary is aware and that prompted his new slogan.

This Monday, foreigners bought a net P1 billion worth of Philippine shares. This is a trend that has been happening for a month and I think it is going to continue.

I am not sure if it’s more fun in the Philippines, but the economic and social sun is brighter here than in the West.

E-mail to mangun@gmail.com and Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by CitisecOnline.com Inc.

PH has enough dollars to withstand Euro debt crisis

2012-01-06T10:30:00.000+08:00

by Roderick T. dela Cruz
Manila Standard

The Philippine financial system is so awash with dollars that it could insulate the economy from the European debt crisis.

Bangko Sentral Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo said total dollar deposits held by foreign currency deposit units of banks hit $25 billion, which is more than enough to cover the demand for the dollars.

Read more: http://www.manilastandardtoday.com/insideBusiness.htm?f=2012/january/6/business2.isx&d=2012/january/6

Filipino Accent Tutorial by Mikey Bustos

2012-01-06T10:22:00.001+08:00

And a song by the same.

$1.5-B 25-year PHL global bonds fully sold

2012-01-06T09:57:00.004+08:00

VG CABUAG
Business Mirror

THE government has fully sold $1.5 billion worth of 25-year global bonds on Thursday morning; tenders, in fact, reached more than eight times the Philippines’s offer.

The global bonds, maturing on 2037, fetched a rate of 5 percent, or an equivalent of 196.2 basis points over benchmark US Treasuries.

With the bond sale, the government has already raised two-thirds of its 2012 foreign-debt requirement of $2.25 billion.

Read more -- http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/top-news/21605-15-b-25-year-phl-global-bonds-fully-sold

More PPP deals lined up

2012-01-05T10:45:00.003+08:00

THE GOVERNMENT is aiming to roll out at least eight of 16 public-private partnership (PPP) projects this year as it seeks to recover ground lost due to delays in the centerpiece infrastructure scheme.

Read more: http://www.bworld.com.ph/content.php?section=TopStory&title=More-PPP-deals-lined-up&id=44504

2012: Year of the hard decisions

2012-01-05T10:29:00.000+08:00

JOHN MANGUN
OUTSIDE THE BOX
Business Mirror
http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/opinion/21545-2012-year-of-the-hard-decisions

IT is almost a week into the New Year so perhaps it is not too early to start some gloom-and-doom or at least some whining and complaining.

While the focus is always on the terrible global economic situation and the tip of the iceberg is the dismal outlook for general financial conditions, the truth is, many things are a mess.

Take political/government leadership, for example. As parents, we may shudder in horror at our children turning out like Justin Bieber or Lady Gaga. But they are only entertainers like circus clowns or dancers in a nightclub. People like that do not have any impact on our daily lives or our futures unless we let them.

However, presidents, prime ministers, and other assorted leaders do have an impact.

Who among them would you like your son or daughter to emulate? Which public figure did your parents tell you to look up to as your role model?

When I was young, one role model was John F. Kennedy. Sure, he came from a very wealthy family, but the man was a war hero. His older brother was killed in the war. For all of his personal weaknesses, which we all have, he was a man whose life could clearly be an example of how to live and what not to do.

Kennedy, like so many of his generation, had what used to be called, the courage of his convictions. Leaders are chosen because they should possess the ability to make difficult decisions. A difficult decision is not choosing between right and wrong, good or evil. A difficult decision is often choosing between two “not-so-goods” in order to create a positive outcome. Parents do that every day.

You want your child to grow their independence while you also must protect them. Yes you can go to the movie but your kuya will come with you to chaperone.

President Kennedy called out the military to run the steel mills when the unions went on strike because it was necessary for the nation. Can you imagine any political leader today going against a labor union?

English writer Hugh Walpole wrote in his novel Fortitude, “’Tisn’t life that matters! ‘Tis the courage you bring to it.”

Not a single government leader in the West for the last 20 years had the courage to stand up to the bankers and say “Hey, you’re bank. You can’t do all these speculative financial things.” The politicians needed the banks to finance their elections.

Likewise, the financial community lacked the courage (in order to gain the profits) to say to governments like Greece, Spain, and even the US, “Hey, you cannot borrow all this money to give away for votes.”

French philosopher Joseph de Maistre wrote, “Every country has the government it deserves.” People around the globe have placed other people in positions of authority unable or unwilling to make hard decisions.

There are some people who should not be listened to because they are evil and wrong. There are some people who should not be listened to because they are ignorant and foolish. And there are some people who should be listened to and then ignored because hard decisions must be made.

Adequate energy is critical and necessary to sustain human life and well-being. But nuclear, although sustainable and cheap is too dangerous. Look at Japan. Coal is cheap and plentiful but it is not 100-percent clean, just 9-percent nonpolluting. Oil is bad because you have to drill a lot of holes in Mother Earth and you might spill some. Hydroelectric is not suitable because you have to dam the river, upsetting the fish and changing the environment. Solar is renewable except it is not efficient on a large scale and is very expensive. Wind turbines only work sometimes, need lots of government money, are ugly and kill the birds.

So what is a poor government leader supposed to do? Make the difficult decision. What do they usually do? Nothing.

Walpole also wrote, “Don’t play for safety. It’s the most dangerous thing in the world.” Political safety is the motto of most governments.

Read the commentaries about what we face in 2012. Almost everyone will end with a comment similar to this, “But the real question is whether or not governments are willing to make the hard choices.”

A great leader doesn’t cower from the enemy. He or she doesn’t fear challenges or obstacles; instead, he or she deals with them head on.

2012 is going to be a year when many hard decisions must be made. Does the world have capable leadership? We will soon find out.

E-mail to mangun@gmail.com and Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by CitisecOnline.com Inc.

PH’s most anticipated projects of 2012

2012-01-03T12:22:00.001+08:00

By: Charles E. Buban
Philippine Daily Inquirer
Read more: http://business.inquirer.net/37791/ph%E2%80%99s-most-anticipated-projects-of-2012

With 2012 just one more day away, perhaps, it’s time to raise our champagne glasses and offer a toast to all the wonderful new structures as well as residential developments we will be anticipating in the coming months.

These are no ordinary projects as they are set to become iconic if not meaningful for a country that seeks solutions to sustainability challenges as well as international acclamation.

While there are several grand projects that will see completion or turnover in 2012, these four are perhaps worthy of our attention.

P141.8-B infra rollout

2012-01-03T12:17:00.003+08:00

Projects to pump prime domestic economy
Manila Bulletin
Read more: http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/346819/p1418b-infra-rollout

MANILA, Philippines — The Aquino government will roll out P141.8-billion worth of infrastructure projects starting this month, a bid to pump prime the domestic economy, the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) announced on Monday.

Budget Secretary Florencio Abad said the funds, sourced from the 2012 national budget, will be used for construction and upgrade of roads, bridges, airports, seaports, classrooms, water supply system, irrigation system, and flood control projects this year.

Differences between a winner and a loser

2012-01-03T12:15:00.001+08:00

JOHN MANGUN
OUTSIDE THE BOX
Business Mirror
http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/opinion/21450-differences-between-a-winner-and-a-loser

It is too early in the year to start talking about the challenges and opportunities 2012 will bring to the country and to all of us as individuals.

Besides, the “challenges” list is really long. And it is always better to look at all the opportunities. The very optimistic among us might even say “challenges” are “opportunities.” You just must know how to take advantage of the challenges to turn them into opportunities.

Perhaps, though, it might be good to step back a moment and examine what the character traits are that separate winners from losers.

We all know the stories of those people who walked out of adversity into success. Manny Pacquiao might be an example. The excelling athlete who started life with a disability or physical weakness of some sort might be another.

However, those might be extreme in comparison to our normal ordinary lives as we attempt to make it in a world that is constantly under the threat of one “gloom-and-doom” situation or another.

What is the world that we are facing in 2012? If 2011 was a year filled with turmoil and change, then 2012 will take the next step of consolidating that turmoil and change into something more tangible.

Change is inevitable and the consequences of change are always unpredictable.

It is how we individually gain or lose from change that is important.

Psychologists studying winners and losers see definite differences in attitude between people that have a “W” or an “L” next to their names. Attitude determines action and action determines outcome. As we go through these, I will confine my comments to stock-market investing. But I think you will clearly see how it applies to running a business, running a government, and running a life.

The first difference is that winners focus on the solutions while losers focus on the problems. If you discuss a problem without having first thought of some solutions that you can also talk about, you are stuck on the losing side.

Yes, it is a challenge to make profitable trades in the stock market. The solution is to learn and listen to other people who have been successful. The investor who is constantly losing money buying “hot tips” and “hot stocks” is not coming up with a reasonable solution. Winners try different strategies when they are not getting the results they want. Losers do the same thing over and over again, expecting different results.

Winners take responsibility. Losers blame others. You cannot blame the PSE Old Boys’ Club for the fact that you did not make money in 2011. Also it is not Europe’s fault, China is not to blame, and the US had nothing to do with it.

Had you bought shares of Globe Telecom one year ago and sold out last Thursday, your profit would have been 35 percent.

Winners take action consistently. Losers refrain from taking action and lack consistency. OK, I will talk about the government. One of the greatest criticisms of investing in and doing business in the Philippines is the uncertainty that comes from inconsistent government policy. The most important “action” of the government is creating long-range policy and the Philippines has little, if any, credibility when it comes to that kind of policy.

Be a consistent investor also. Make staged investments every month regardless of the price. Over the long run you will make money.

That goes along with what is perhaps the most important difference between the “Ws” and “Ls.” Winners have a plan; losers hate having a plan.

The vast majority of stock-market investors never trade with a plan. That is the No.1 reason they lose.

You must write down specific answers to these questions before you invest.

Why am I buying this issue? If your response does not make sense when you see it on paper, you are heading down the “L” road.

At what price will I sell for a profit? Why?

At what price will I sell for a loss? Why?

Answering those questions is the most important part of your investing, even more important than the stock you select.

Every one must learn to manage challenges in order to turn them into opportunities. For stock-market investors, the greatest, most difficult challenge is learning when to sell. The only way that you can overcome this major obstacle is to have a firm clear plan. Winners control their own destiny. Losers leave everything to their fate.

Stock-market investors are going to make a lot of money in 2012. But at this time next year, I guarantee you the list of losers is going to be much longer than the list of winners.

E-mail to mangun@gmail.com and Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by CitisecOnline.com Inc.

Seair sets 5-yr fleet expansion program

2012-01-03T12:13:00.000+08:00

LENIE LECTURA
Business Mirror
http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/companies/21424-seair-sets-5-yr-fleet-expansion-program

SOUTH EAST Asian Airlines Inc. (Seair) is expanding its fleet by 10 more aircraft in the next five years, serving more routes and more frequencies.

“We are going to add more aircraft, maybe 10, in the next five years,” said Seair president Avelino Zapanta. The airline flies to Boracay, Batanes, Tablas (Romblon), Clark and Cebu. It also serves three international routes—Hong Kong, Singapore and Macau from the Clark hub.

Zapanta said the new fleet will be composed of Airbus A320s. The first two units are arriving in February and March and will serve the Cebu and Davao routes.  Funding for the new fleet, he said, is still being planned by the airline. 

“The new jets will continue to serve existing routes and maybe add more frequencies and new routes in the near future as we expand. We were recently granted air rights to fly to Kuala Lumpur,” added the Seair official.

The airline wants to be known as the only low-cost carrier with a fleet composed solely of Airbus A320s. A newly formed affiliate, Seair International, will take over the turboprop operation of Seair Inc. which has several Dornier 328s.

“Seair Inc. currently has dual operations—serving both as a leisure airline and a low-cost airline. While Seair International is waiting for the airline operating carrier permit from the Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines, Seair Inc. will continue with its dual role. When the permit is granted, Seair Inc. will serve as a low-cost airline while Seair International will be the leisure airline,” said Zapanta. 

Seair Inc. is being managed by its new owners. Tiger Air, the budget carrier of Singapore Airlines, has signed an agreement to buy a 32.5-percent stake in Seair Inc. for $6 million. The remaining 67.5 percent is owned by “three big investors” whom Zapanta declined to identify.

Zapanta begged off from giving additional details on the identities of the new owners but sources confirmed that the Lopez family is indeed one of the group of Filipino investors that bought into Seair’s jet operation. The other two groups are reportedly from the Delgado and Consunji families, which controls DMCI Holdings, a conglomerate with interests in real estate, construction and coal mining. The Lopezes hold interests in broadcast, telecommunications, power and infrastructure companies.

Zapanta explained that Seair International will be a Filipino-owned airline. “The [previous] board of Seair will sit in to run Seair International, which will continue its legacy off serving leisure routes. It will be marketed under the Flyseair.com brand,” he explained.

New year of skepticism over Aquino intentions

2012-01-02T16:25:00.000+08:00

By: Amando Doronila
Philippine Daily Inquirer
Read full article: http://opinion.inquirer.net/20295/new-year-of-skepticism-over-aquino-intentions

The New Year promises to be the beginning of a season of skepticism over the good intentions of the Aquino government, with the virtuous slogans driving the administration’s “daang matuwid” in the past one-and-a-half years as the sole justification of the President’s mandate following his landslide election victory in May 2010.

After more than a year of nonperformance and failure to deliver concrete results on election promises, including the reduction of poverty, people are now less inclined to swallow hook, line and sinker pious protestions from the administration propaganda organs. They are beginning to demand, “where’s the beef?”

Many are now asking, is the jailing of Arroyo, the impeachment of the alleged pro-Arroyo Chief Justice and the revamp of a Supreme Court packed by Arroyo appointees enough of a claim of achievement for a results-deficit nearly two-year-old Aquino government? More and more people are asking, are the poor any less poor than before May 2010? Where are the jobs that give incomes to the poor and enable them to buy more food for their families and to send their children to school?

In assessing the accomplishments of the Aquino regime, it is difficult for journalists to turn a blind eye on the defining character of an administration in its first one and a half years—which is that it is an undemocratic government.

This is not the Aquino who mesmerized the people to vote for him in 2010 with promises of a caring and honest government. The basis for his continuing popularity requires closer examination.

The media cannot be, and should not be, party to propagating a momentary fad in the shifting sands of public opinion. To do so would be to abdicate their duty as sentinels warning against the deployment of the superior powers of the state against the weak and disadvantaged—no matter how popular that regime is.

BSP report says Philippines lent P385.5b to the rest of the world

2011-12-29T16:50:00.000+08:00

by Roderick T. dela Cruz
Manila Standard
http://www.manilastandardtoday.com/insideBusiness.htm?f=2011/december/29/business5.isx&d=2011/december/29

The Philippines has lent more money to the rest of the world than what it borrowed over the past couple of years, the Bangko Sentral said in a report released Wednesday.

The Bangko Sentral, in its 2010 Flow of Funds Report, said the country’s net lending to the rest of the world amounted to P385.5 billion in 2010, lower than P450.3 billion registered in 2009.

The country became a net lender to the rest of the world after the Bangko Sentral, banks and other local financial institutions invested in securities issued by other countries such as the United States.

“Securities were the dominant instruments for financial transactions with the rest of the world. Aside from the Bangko Sentral, commercial banks and the insurance sector were the main investors in debt issues by non-residents. On the other hand, the national government was the top bond issuer offshore,” the Bangko Sentral said.

The report presents a summary of financial transactions among the four different institutions of the economy, and between these institutions and the rest of the world. These institutions are financial corporations, non-financial corporations, the general government, and the household sector.

Data showed that total savings in the economy improved to P1.71 trillion in 2010 from the previous year’s level of P1.57 trillion, with all sectors in the economy generating savings.

The household sector, for the third consecutive year, maintained its position as lead saver in the economy with total accumulated savings of P841.5 billion, a modest improvement of 6.4 percent from the year-ago level.

Meanwhile, savings in the non-financial corporations sector steadily grew at 14.6 percent to reach P692.9 billion in 2010, underpinned by strong net income that was observed in all industries, notably in food and beverage, real estate, transport and wholesale trade.

White Swans

2011-12-29T16:26:00.003+08:00

JOHN MANGUN
OUTSIDE THE BOX
Business Mirror
http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/opinion/21301-white-swans

A “Black Swan” event is something that happens which is completely unexpected and with far-reaching consequences and effects. It is almost impossible to prepare for something like this.
An example might be the 9/11 terrorist attack, unknown beforehand except to the perpetrators. Another example would be the assassination of Ninoy Aquino. No one expected it. No one was prepared for it.

However, Black Swan events can be progressive. The creator of the concept, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, uses the Internet as a perfect Black Swan event.

The Internet was first created as way for university computers to share information in the early 1970s. Who could have imagined or planned that 30 years later, virtually any person on the earth with a cell phone would be connected through the Internet.

If there are unexpected events that cannot be prepared for, there then should be what I will call “White Swan” events that we should be able to see coming and make preparations for.

Even certain unexpected events are thought through and have contingency plans. Every major news organization in the world has an extensive file of obituaries prepared when a celebrity or well-known person dies. Governments have a plan of succession in the event a leader dies, resigns, or otherwise cannot perform his/her duties.

Natural disasters, no matter how severe, are expected to occur. The fact that the contingency plan may not be complete or effective does not change the fact that they are probable.

In truth, it is a bit silly to think and worry about the Black Swans that could happen because the moment we figure out that they might occur, they really are no longer Black Swans. We can prepare and plan for them.

But for the average person, it is the White Swan events that create the most problems. We know they can and will happen. But when they do happen, we do not have a plan. Because we do not maximize the opportunities of events we can anticipate.

The White Swan events that we will encounter in the next 12 months are right in front of us.

The peso/dollar rate is going to fluctuate. This is what we absolutely do know. That seems obvious yet when the peso moves in one direction for a couple of weeks, it becomes a big story. Currencies were very volatile these last few months. However, the Philippine peso was expected to be stronger toward the end of the year when in fact, the peso/dollar rate is almost unchanged from one year ago.

So where is the peso going to be a year from now? I do not have a clue.

But how do you prepare? Most individuals try to take advantage of peso movement the way they drive, switching lanes every time the car next to them moves ahead. It is simply impractical. If your business needs dollars then either purchase forward contracts or buy the physical currency at whatever price it is now and then factor that price into your financial model. The buy/sell spread on the peso at your local bank is so high that it makes no sense to play the movement.

Trying to anticipate currency-price movements over a longer term is only for professional traders.

The stock market is going to go up and then it is going to go down. But millions of Filipinos who could and should be investing do not. They are afraid of the downs. A wise man once said that if you are afraid of losing, you are more afraid of winning. Market fluctuations are a White Swan that can easily and effectively be taken advantage of.

Your house can be instantly destroyed in an earthquake. So why don’t you move to London; no earthquakes there. Because you manage earthquake risk—insurance, sound building practices and proper preparedness for an earthquake are a white swan.

We know that the Philippine economy is going to be difficult this coming year. So what have you done with your personal and business financial model to prepare?

When Ondoy came, only three houses in my little village did not flood badly. I was fortunate. But when the storm cleared, I bought some sandbags. When the next major flooding hits, I am prepared.

Do you have a worst-case scenario plan if GDP growth hits low-end 2012 expectations of 3 percent? Your business model should include a 10-percent revenue decrease. Can you survive that?

Are your personal finances ready for a likely 5-percent inflation and lower income in 2012?

It is not Mayon Volcano blowing its top that’s going to get you. It is the things you know are coming that you have not thought out and planned how to handle.

E-mail to mangun@gmail.com and Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by CitisecOnline.com Inc.

CAB allots regional flight rights to 4 local carriers

2011-12-28T16:49:00.000+08:00

LENIE LECTURA
Business Mirror
http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/economy/21250-cab-allots-regional-flight-rights-to-4-local-carriers

THE Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB) has allotted flight entitlements to four local carriers to enable these airlines to offer more passenger seats, and embark on direct flights to Vietnam and—for the first time—to Cambodia.

Cebu Pacific was granted five frequencies while ZestAir was allotted two frequencies to the Manila-Cambodia route. One frequency is equivalent to one weekly-flight.

Airphil Express and AirAsia Philippines Inc. each got seven frequencies to mount flights to the Clark-Cambodia route.

The board also awarded six co-efficients (equivalent to about 160 passenger seats) to AirAsia Philippines. CAB lawyer Elena Moro said these entitlements can be used to field flights to Osaka and Nagoya in Japan from Clark.

Cebu Pacific also got 650 weekly-seats to embark on flights to Ho Chi Minh in Vietnam and 1,260 seats per week to Hanoi from Manila.

ZestAir and Airphil Express were each granted 1,045 seats per week. Moro said these seats can be used to service Manila-to-Hanoi or Cebu-to-Hanoi routes.

Earlier, the Philippines inked an air pact with Vietnam, Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka and Malaysia.

Last week the CAB assigned to Cebu Pacific, Zest Air and Airphil Express the remaining flight entitlements that would service the Manila-Kuala Lumpur (KL) route.

Cebu Pacific was authorized to mount 720 more seats per week from the current 10 weekly flights representing 1,800 seats a week.

Airphil was allotted 1,260-weekly seat entitlements and 540-weekly seats for Zest Air.

The CAB is part of the Philippine air panel which negotiates for traffic rights with other countries. Aside from the CAB, other panel members include the Departments of Transportation and Communications, Foreign Affairs, Tourism, Trade and Industry, and representatives from the airline companies.

Philippines to host regional EU CBRN Center

2011-12-28T16:46:00.000+08:00

ESTRELLA TORRES
Business Mirror
http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/science/20804-philippines-to-host-regional-eu-cbrn-center

THE Philippines will host the permanent secretariat of the Southeast Asian Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Center, a European Union global initiative with a total allocation of P59 billion.
The center to be established in Manila beginning 2012 will help the country in mitigating biological risk like pandemics.

The center is part of the EU Global Initiative that seeks to develop at national and regional levels the necessary institutional capacity to fight chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear risks.

The EU Delegation in the Philippines said in a statement that close to €100 million or P59 billion will be allocated within 2009-13 for the initiative.

Read more: http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/science/20804-philippines-to-host-regional-eu-cbrn-center

Outrageous predictions for 2012

2011-12-27T15:59:00.002+08:00

JOHN MANGUN
OUTSIDE THE BOX
Business Mirror
http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/opinion/21183-outrageous-predictions-for-2012

A “Black Swan” event is a term coined by author, statistician and (of course) financial-market trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb. It describes an event of great magnitude that no one expected and that has large magnitude and consequences.

As examples, he gives the rise of the Internet, the personal computer, World War I, and the September 11 attacks as examples of Black Swan events.

Each year, the European Saxo Bank publishes its list of Black Swan forecasts called “Outrageous Predictions.” For 2011, some of its predictions were that: Apple would buy Facebook which did not happen, perhaps in part because of Steven Jobs’s ill health. It forecast that the price of natural gas would surge 50 percent when in fact the price fell like a rock in 2011 as new and cheap discoveries primarily in the US came on line.

However, Saxo did call the price rise in gold going to $1,800 correctly and the fall of US interest rates on the 30-year Treasury debt falling to 3 percent.

So what is Saxo saying about 2012?

First, the world ending in 2012 is not on Saxo’s list, although I suppose this would be the ultimate Black Swan event. What Saxo does call for is for the price of Apple stock to decrease by 50 percent. For US stock-market players, this would be very significant as Apple would probably be forced to go on a corporate-buying binge looking at many tech and Internet companies to prop up its bottom line. Saxo expects Apple to lose market shares as there are now several good competitors in the smartphone market.

Of course, that has nothing to do with us in the Philippines but is interesting, nonetheless.

Another of its predictions does affect PHL. Wheat prices are projected to double in 2012 as the wheat harvest is 2011 was very poor. Prices should reach levels last seen in 2008. My “White Swan” (a likely event) prediction is that the government will tell us that they are doing everything possible to stop the “unexpected” rise in the price of bread and pan de sal. The “pro-poor” groups will say the greedy bakers are to blame.

Here is a prediction that no one expects to happen but if it does, watch out. The European Union will declare an extended bank holiday during 2012 with all banks and stock markets closed for a week or more.

The European Central bank has just pumped $800 billion into its banking system. It is not nearly enough. In February another $800 billion is planned to be loaded into EU economy.

Remember that the US tried the same thing in 2009 and 2010 with virtually no improvement in its economy. However, taken as a whole, Europe is in much worse shape, economic-growth wise, than the US.

If this stimulus does not help and help within one or two quarters, Europe will be in a recession and have many major failing banks. Stock markets everywhere will take a large hit if there is a bank holiday.

The Philippine Stock Exchange is going to reach 4,800 to 5,000. I am 60-percent confident of that. But you cannot put your stock investments on autopilot in these troubled times. You must be constantly updated with the right information.

If this Black Swan swims in during 2012, the US dollar will go through the roof and the PHL peso will fall on a daily basis the way it did back when Cory Aquino was President. I remember 10-percent daily fluctuations back in the late 1980s.

If that happens, oil prices will go up proportionally. Again, this will all be “unexpected” by the government experts, so you personally need to be prepared.

What are some potential Black Swan events for the Philippines?

I asked a few people and the one answer that was the most frightening and least likely was the death of some leading political figure. Some described this as a natural death, others as not-so-natural.

The others mentioned were mostly natural disasters—volcanic eruptions, floods, and the like.

Understand again, these are potential Black Swans that probably will not happen. But you must be prepared for the unexpected. However, more important is to be prepared for what the probable future will be.

What events both good and bad can we expect to happen in the Philippines during 2012 and how do we plan for them? We will talk about some White Swan events on Thursday.

2011-12-22T10:42:00.000+08:00

Jollibee Buying Into Restaurant Chain
$60-M Investment
Manila Bulletin
http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/345675/jollibee-buying-into-restaurant-chain

MANILA, Philippines — Jollibee Foods Corporation, through wholly-owned Singapore unit JSF Investments Pte. Ltd., has formally initiated its plan to invest $60 million in the southeast Asian restaurant business of the SuperFoods Group.

In a disclosure to the Philippine Stock Exchange, Jollibee said it is acquiring a 50 percent stake in the business of the SuperFoods Group consisting of a 49 percent share in SF Vung Tau Joint Stock Company of Vietnam and a 60 percent interest in Blue Sky Holdings Limited of Hong Kong.

The SuperFoods Group owns and operates various brands, including Highlands Coffee Shops in Vietnam, Highlands Coffee Packaged Products, and Hard Rock Café franchised stores in Macau, Hong Kong and Vietnam.

Very recently, the SuperFoods Group also acquired the Pho 24 brand and restaurants which have presence in Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, Hong Kong, Cambodia and Japan. The annual sales of the SuperFoods Group amount to about $30 million.

Highlands Coffee serves Vietnamese coffee and light meals in trendy coffee shops and sells packaged coffee through retail outlets. Pho 24 serves traditional Vietnamese dishes with rice noodles as its core product.

Jollibee and its prospective partner Viet Thai International Joint Stock Company (VTI) aims to offer Asian mass consumers high quality coffee and café experience at affordable prices through Highlands Coffee Shops and Highlands Packaged Products.

They also aim to serve the Asian mass consumers high quality Vietnamese food at affordable prices through the Pho 24 brand and restaurants.

Jollibee also plans to serve Highlands Coffee in the restaurants of its various brands in order to upgrade the quality of its coffee at prices its consumers can afford.

Currently, Highlands has 54 stores in Vietnam while Pho 24 has 48 restaurants in Vietnam, 11 in Indonesia, 4 in Hong Kong, 3 in Tokyo, Japan, 1 in Cambodia and 2 in the Philippines.

In the Philippines, franchising rights for operating Highlands Coffee Shops was granted to IP Ventures.

The subscription to 50 percent of the business of SuperFoods will be an implementation of an earlier agreement under which Jollibee will invest $25 million for half of the SuperFoods business and a $35 million loan to VTI. It also advanced $5 million to SuperFoods. (JAL)

On taking personal responsibility

2011-12-22T10:32:00.004+08:00

JOHN MANGUN
OUTSIDE THE BOX
Business Mirror
http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/opinion/21025-on-taking-personal-responsibility

IN the aftermath of the Sendong flooding, literally millions of people have opened their hearts and wallets to those affected by this massacre of life and property.

However, the finger-pointing to non-existent climate change, Pagasa’s inability to adequately perform its mandate, and the government’s lack of “disaster preparedness” points to a truth no one is willing to admit. The government cannot protect the people.

In 2008 I wrote a column, titled “Who is responsible for our lives?” about the maritime tragedy when bad weather sank a ship, killing hundreds.

Then also, the blame game dominated the discussion. The ship was allowed to leave port by the Coast Guard, Pagasa underestimated the severity of the weather, and the captain perhaps put schedule before safety. But the blame was put on the “government” rather than the passengers taking responsibility for getting on a ship in very bad weather.

Certainly, Sendong is a completely different set of circumstances, with people dying in their beds from the rains. But still, we tend to look to an outside authority for our protection, even when experience tells us time and time again, that protection is weak at best and non-existent at the worst.

Albert Einstein said, “Man must cease attributing his problems to his environment, and learn again to exercise his will, his power, his personal responsibility.”

The New Year is right around the corner. What is your financial plan? Or are you relying on the government to protect and prosper you?

Let me tell you a secret. The government, even when staffed and led by the most wonderful, loving, honest public servants, does not care about you. The government, like every other institution, lives only for its own survival.

You, even the good person that you are, would not sacrifice your family for mine any more than I would forfeit my family to save yours.

We must take responsibility for our own lives because no one, no institution is going to protect or prosper us.

Are you making financial plans based on what the government says that it is going to do for the economy in 2012? Are you really that foolish?

The common socialist thinking is that no one can prosper himself/herself unless the government helps. The other side of that is one person cannot become wealthier because the already wealthy keeps the lower economic groups down. When that kind of thinking takes hold, personal responsibility is gone and we become dependent as Einstein says on our “environment,” whether that environment is the government or others.

If you want to be wealthier, you must do it yourself.

I received this e-mail yesterday, requesting a copy of my stock-market analysis. This man, Jovy, is the clearest example of what I am trying to say.

“I discovered your column around six months after I started investing in March 2009. I have been following you since then.

My interest started around 1998 when my father gave me shares in Petron, which he bought around 1994/5. I thought, what do I do with this thing and started studying/reading about the stock market since 1998 by buying secondhand books.

I was casually following the stock market already when 2008 happened, and all I’ve read made me feel strong that it was the time to invest and did so starting March 2009. Starting small with just a couple of thousand pesos and buying more incrementally. When I saw that what I read in books was starting to unravel, I went all in with the wedding gift I and my wife received in 2007. I think I doubled that amount or more. I built a small concrete house here in Bicol with that money, my trophy.”

This man started investing just as the stock market was taking off, based on his own analysis reading secondhand books. He took responsibility for his personal financial future and look at his words: “My trophy.”

While others were complaining about the “PSE Casino” and the “Old-Boys’ Club,” Jovy was making money to build himself a house. And those Petron shares his father gave him? Remember the majority of Petron’s initial public offering was allocated to the Small Investor Program with the buying limit being P5,000.

Next year is going to be difficult, perhaps very difficult. Every quarter when economic expectations have not been fulfilled, the people are going to blame the government and the government is going to blame the environment.

But there will be another group that will not be listening. They will be too busy making money, taking personal responsibility.

On a personal note, I would like to send you a complimentary copy of this week’s PSE Strategy Guide from MangunOnMarkets.com.com. Please e-mail me at john@mangunonmarkets.com with your request. Merry Christmas.

****

E-mail to mangun@gmail.com and Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by CitisecOnline.com Inc.

Filipino wins National Geographic photo contest

2011-12-22T10:29:00.001+08:00

George Tapan's photo was chosen among 2,000 entries. Read more here: http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/345614/veteran-pinoy-photographer-george-tapan-wins-nat-geo-photo-contest.

Author Gordon Chang: Wheels Are Coming Off China’s Economy Read more: Author Gordon Chang: Wheels Are Coming Off China’s Economy Important: Can you afford to Retire? Shocking Poll Results

2011-12-22T10:09:00.002+08:00

Read it here: http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/author-Chang-China-Economy/2011/12/21/id/421710?s=al&promo_code=DC36-1

Stateside: Ron Paul rising

2011-12-21T15:53:00.002+08:00

Come to the Philippines!

2011-12-21T14:38:00.001+08:00

CebuPac

http://youtu.be/XkTSrpsvRP8

Cebu Pacific Puts On A Christmas Show In The Skies

2011-12-21T14:28:00.000+08:00

James Hookway
Wall Street Journal
Read article: http://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2011/12/21/cebu-pacific-puts-on-a-christmas-show-in-the-skies/

Energy OKs 1,000 MW of hydropower projects

2011-12-21T14:13:00.000+08:00

by Alena Mae S. Flores
Manila Standard
http://www.manilastandardtoday.com/insideBusiness.htm?f=2011/december/20/business2.isx&d=2011/december/20

The Energy Department has signed large and mini-hydropower project contracts with a combined generation capacity of over 1,000 megawatts.

“I’ve signed over a thousand megawatts of hydropower and mini-hydropower project contracts. In the past few months, we continue to release and sign contracts in areas where it really works,” Energy Secretary Jose Rene Almendras said.

Almendras also dismissed criticisms that the department was not issuing renewable energy contracts.

“The problem before, the DoE just kept on releasing service contracts without fixing the peripheral issues. But now we’re trying to make sure that if you have service contracts, [you have] the chance of getting that project off the ground,” he said.

The department had 191 pending hydropower applications totaling 3,592.87 MW, followed by solar with 70 applications for projects totaling 537 MW.

Fifty-nine applied for wind power development projects with a generation capacity of 1,431 MW. Ocean energy received 21 applications equivalent to 60 MW while geothermal power development got 15 proposals to produce a combined 230 MW.

Condolences and prayers for the victims of Sendong

2011-12-21T13:04:00.000+08:00

We are one with you in prayer and sorrow.

Don’t count on anyone but PHL

2011-12-20T17:02:00.001+08:00

JOHN MANGUN
OUTSIDE THE BOX
Business Mirror
http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/opinion/20933-dont-count-on-anyone-but-phl

THE comments coming from the government as to what is going to propel the Philippine economy in the next 12 months seem largely disconnected from reality.

On one hand, the government fully intends to speed up spending to “stimulate” the economy. In my column a few weeks ago, “2011: A wasted year,” I said that the year was wasted by a government that spent its time trying to figure out what to do and then doing nothing.

Now the government is rushing in (supposedly) to make up for what has not happened in the last 12 months.

My friend Boo Chanco in his Philippine Star column yesterday, titled “Govt spending alone won’t do it,” is partially correct. An economy cannot rely on stimulus spending for growth. Just ask the US.

However, government spending in a country like the Philippines does have a much greater economic effect for growth than in more developed countries. Further, in a small economy such as the size of the Philippines, the synergy of private spending, coupled with public spending is much greater.

While the government is building the infrastructure, such as a new major highway, the private sector is putting up the commercial and residential developments along that highway.

The Aquino administration blew it in 2011 and they cannot make up for it now.

Think back a year ago. There were signs that the West, particularly the US, was beginning to stabilize. The fear of a default of Greece was months away. China’s stock market had not dropped 25 percent and its property prices were not down 50 percent.

There was enthusiasm in the Philippines that 2011 would be the year of the public-private partnership infrastructure projects.

Going into 2012, Europe is on the brink of disaster with no one really knowing whether there will even be a euro by 2013. China is looking at a sub 7-percent economic growth possibility, which is the same as zero for that nation.

Philippine businesses are cautious, particularly against the current political climate. Foreign investments into the country are worse than in 2010 and the growth of in-bound money flows from all sources is slowing.

Now in 2012, the government says it is ready to go full- speed ahead while the private sector is cautious and a bit worried. That is the type of bad timing that causes major economic problems.

Listening to recent comments from the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda), I worry that perhaps they are reading reports and seeing data from 2010 and not 2011.

I was a little surprised to read this from Phil Star: “The retreat of Philippine exports that started last May has finally bottomed out. [Neda] expects the sector to bounce back by next year.”

Is Neda serious? Philippine exports in October fell an annual 14.6 percent and dropped again for the sixth- straight month. Electronic shipments, which make up nearly 50 percent of all exports, are down nearly 40 percent from 2010.

And where exactly is this “bounce back” going to come from?

People from the Center for International Trade Expositions and Missions (Citem) say the Philippines should export more furniture to China because of its real-estate boom. Good grief. Is anyone in the government aware of what’s going on? Property sales in Shanghai have fallen 70 percent since last year at this time. They do not need Filipino-made furniture.

Exports to the US, the second-biggest market, were down 12.8 percent from a year earlier. There is not going to be any “bounce back.”

The reality is that things are going to get worse in the West before they get better. Europe is facing a recession as well as a banking system failure. And the US? Let me share some facts with you.

A staggering 48 percent of all Americans are either considered to be “low income” or are living in poverty

There are fewer payroll jobs in the United States today than there were back in 2000 even though 30 million extra people have been added to the population since then.

The Federal Reserve recently announced that the total net worth of US households declined by 4.1 percent in the 3rd quarter of 2011 alone.

A higher percentage of Americans is living in extreme poverty (6.7 percent) than has ever been measured before.

From the BusinessMirror: “The total value of commodities traded within the country posted a 15-percent increase in the third quarter.” The only thing that is going to grow the Philippine economy is Filipinos.

On a personal note, I would like to send you a complimentary copy of this week’s PSE Strategy Guide from MangunOnMarkets.com.com. Please e-mail me at mangun@gmail.com with your request. Merry Christmas.

E-mail to mangun@gmail.com and Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by CitisecOnline.com Inc.

Operator asks gov't OK to proceed with Skyway Stage 3

2011-12-18T19:20:00.000+08:00

By KRIS BAYOS
Manila Bulletin
http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/345263/operator-asks-govt-ok-proceed-with-skyway-stage-3

MANILA, Philippines — The operator of the Metro Manila Skyway System (Skyway) Sunday urged the government to allow it to proceed with the construction of the elevated expressway that will connect the North and South Luzon Expressways, even if another proposal for a connector road recently surfaced.

This, as the Citra Metro Manila Tollways Corporation (CMMTC), concessionaire of Skyway, said it is financially ready to finance the construction of Skyway Project Stage 3, which will run from the Buendia Exit of Skyway 2 to Balintawak in Quezon City, where the North Luzon Expressway (NLEx) starts.

CMMTC officials earlier disclosed that it is ready with at least $1.5 billion to invest in infrastructure development in the Philippines. This will cover investment for Skyway Stage 3, which will cost about P22 to P24 billion and Skyway Stage 4 or C6, which will run from Parañaque to Antipolo, and will cost about P28 billion.

A source in the CMMTC said they are ready to undertake the project but the issuance of notice to proceed from the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPHW) is getting in their way.

“We are financially ready to pursue the projects. We can even do the Skyway Stages 3 and 4 simultaneously but we do not have the notice to proceed yet,” the source said.

Industry sources said the delay is likely because of an alleged proposal by the Manila Pacific Tollways Corporation (MPTC) to build a similar NLEx-SLEx connector road through an elevated road over the tracks of the Philippine National Railways and will run from Valenzuela to Buendia.

But a source from the CMMTC claimed MPTC’s 13.5-kilometer connector road is different from Skyway’s 14.2-kilometer Stage 3 since it will predominantly traverse the median of C3 Road and Araneta Avenue and cuts through the busy thoroughfares of Central Manila in Osmeña Highway, Quirino Avenue, Sta. Mesa, Araneta Ave. and A. Bonifacio Road.

The source dismissed the allegation that pursuing both the Skyway Stage 3 and the Connector Road will be redundant as it will cater different motoring markets.

“We don’t mind if government allows both CMMTC and MPTC to undertake their projects. It is even better for both projects to be implemented since it will be both beneficial to the motorists, without government spending for it,” he said.

The source said the government could no longer scrap the Skyway 3 project just because of the proposed Connector Road since it is part of the Skyway project concept approved by the government in 1995.

Cebu Pacific, CAE To Open $50-M Airbus Pilot Training Center

2011-12-17T10:40:00.001+08:00

By JAMES A. LOYOLA
Manila Bulletin

MANILA, Philippines — Cebu Pacific Air, the Philippines’ largest national flag carrier, and CAE of Canada, world leader in aviation training, are investing US$40 million to US$50 million in a joint venture to establish an aviation training center for airlines in the Asia Pacific region.

In a disclosure to the Philippine Stock Exchange, Cebu Pacific said the joint venture will also be responsible for type-rating training of its pilots.

The aviation academy is scheduled to start operations in the third quarter of 2012 in Clark Freeport Zone, northwest of the national capital of Manila.

Read more: http://mb.com.ph/node/345114/cebu-pacific-cae-to-open-50m-airbu

Full blast on infra projects in 2012

2011-12-16T11:10:00.000+08:00

Expect more traffic jams with implementation of P140B infra projects—Abad
By: Christine O. Avendaño
Philippine Daily Inquirer

MANILA, Philippines—Expect major traffic jams not only in Metro Manila but throughout the country starting next month when the government goes full blast in implementing its infrastructure program, the budget department said Thursday.

“There will be temporary problems with respect to the flow of traffic all over the country because what (Public Works) Secretary (Rogelio) Singson has been able to do is accelerate the completion of the infrastructure programs so that it may be completed before 2013,” Budget Secretary Floencio Abad told reporters.

The budget secretary said that the DPWH seeks to implement 2,144 infrastructure projects all over the country, mostly in the poor provinces. Ninety-three percent of these projects will be ready for awarding on January 2 next year, Abad said.

Read complete article: http://business.inquirer.net/35267/expect-more-traffic-jams-with-implementation-of-p140b-infra-projects%E2%80%94abad

Government sees P832B worth of infra projects for implementation in 2012: Neda

2011-12-16T11:02:00.002+08:00

CAI U. ORDINARIO
Business Mirror

THE government estimates that infrastructure projects to be undertaken next year will amount to around P832 billion, according to the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda).
Neda Director General Cayetano W. Paderanga Jr. told reporters that these projects are part of the still-to be published 2011 to 2016 Public Investment Program (PIP).

The PIP will amount to around P4.2 trillion under the term of President Aquino. The Neda estimated that close to P3.8 trillion will be composed of infrastructure projects alone or those that require construction while the remaining will be for the government’s on-lending program.

“These are still rough numbers. These are programmed expenditures so it will depend on the actual implementation but we’re confirming the increase because in 2011, the initial amount estimated was only about P500 billion so we’re romping it up to around P832 billion,” Paderanga explained.

Read more: http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/economy/20751-govt-sees-p832b-worth-of-infra-projects-for-implementation-in-2012-neda

Ayala Wins Toll Road Bidding

2011-12-16T10:53:00.000+08:00

Manila Bulletin
http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/345001/ayala-wins-toll-road-bidding

MANILA, Philippines — The government said Thursday conglomerate Ayala Corp. won the auction for a contract to develop a toll road project linking the capital to southern provinces with a bid of P902 million, more than double the floor price.

Ayala Corp's bid came in ahead of South Expressway Link, a consortium led by San Miguel Corp, which bid P608 million said Public Works and Highways Secretary Rogelio Singson.

Only the two groups passed pre-qualification for the auction, and the minimum price was set at P371 million.

''We declared Ayala as the winning bidder,'' Singson told Reuters on phone. ''We are preparing all the documents so we can start work as soon as possible.''

The project – the first toll road venture by the Ayala group – involves financing, design, construction, operation and maintenance of the Daang Hari-SLEX toll road that will link the southern Cavite province to the South Luzon Expressway, one of two major gateways to the capital.

It is the first of $1-billion priority infrastructure deals the government wants to offer to investors under a public-private partnership (PPP) program, the centerpiece of development goals of President Benigno Aquino's administration.

Singson said his agency was also preparing the auction of two other PPP projects in the first quarter of 2012, including the second phase of the NAIA expressway linking two highways to the three terminals of Manila's main international airport at an estimated cost of P10.6 billion.

The second auction involves inviting investors to challenge an unsolicited bid worth P21 billion from the Metro Pacific Investments Corp. for the construction of an elevated road link that will connect the two existing main expressways linking Manila to nearby provinces to the north and south.

The Daang Hari-SLEX Link Road Project involves the construction of a new 4-kilometer 4-lane toll road, from the junction of Daang Reyna and Daang Hari in Las Piñas/Bacoor, Cavite to SLEX through the vicinity of Susana Heights Interchange in Muntinlupa, as exit and entry from the northbound and southbound lanes of SLEX, traversing the New Bilibid Prison (NBP) Reservation.

The project will complement the Cavite-Laguna-East-West Highway and will provide additional access for the increasing traffic between the cities of Las Piñas and Muntinlupa and the province of Cavite, which is one of the most rapidly growing areas around Metro Manila," added Singson.

The project is a strategic component of the Metro Manila Urban Expressway Network Master Plan intended to provide a high-standard highway within a 200-kilometer radius of Metro Manila.

2011-12-16T10:51:00.003+08:00

Villar Group Expanding Store Chain
By JAMES A. LOYOLA
Manila Bulletin
http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/345004/villar-group-expanding-store-chain

MANILA, Philippines — Finds Convenience Stores, Inc. (FCSI), a member of the Retail and Services group of the Villar Group of Companies, expects to invest a total of P1 billion to expand its store network to 100 in the next 12 months.

The firm marked its entry into franchising thru its first Trade Conference held recently. The event was meant to establish and maintain strong business relations with existing and future business partners and to learn more about the future direction of the company.

Senator Manny Villar noted that his retail and service group is now embarking on expanding significantly with the economy doing well with the influx of remittances and steady growth of the BPO industry.

“It’s a huge market out there, it’s booming and we should participate in this boom,” said Villar adding that he envisions his retail and service group to become as dominating as its realty counterpart, Vista Land and Lifescapes.

“This is the beginning of a big group. This is the beginning of a dominant player in the industry,” said Villar.

He pointed out that, “we are dead set on becoming number one in this area. We are not intimidated by competition. We feel that competition here is very slow and we can move faster. So we accept the challenge, we are starting, we’re not late. We’ve only just begun. We’re just warming up.”

Finds president Jerry Navarrete FCSI is one of the many retail and service companies under the Villar Group, which also includes Starmall, Primewater, MGS Construction, Golden Haven, Planet Cable and Georgia College to name a few.

Finds Convenience Store was initially conceptualized to complement the villages and subdivisions developed by Vista Land nationwide and to serve the daily needs of its residents.

FCS has also put up an al fresco dining concept which offers all-day breakfast meals and ready-to-go meals any time of the day. (JAL)

New partnership formed to fund P17-B Skyway Stage 3 project

2011-12-16T10:50:00.000+08:00

By ANJO PEREZ
Manila Bulletin
http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/344947/new-partnership-formed-fund-p17b-skyway-stage-3-project

MANILA, Philippines — Construction of the 14-kilometer Skyway Stage 3 project is expected to commence in the second quarter of next year with four Indonesian companies forming a new company to finance the P17 billion-project.

Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada, Citra Lamtoro Gung Persada (CLP), Bhaskara Duniajaya and Matra Sarana Arsitama, collectively known in the Philippines as the Citra Group, the four Indonesian firms that own the majority interest in the Skyway concessionaire Citra Metro Manila Tollways Corp. (CMMTC), have consolidated their shareholdings by forming a new company.

The newly formed company has secured over P17 billion in total funding required for both the acquisition of existing toll roads and building new toll roads.

Having invested in the Philippines since 1995, and overcoming the Asian and global financial crises of 1997 and 2008, the Citra Group can be considered the most steadfast foreign developer of toll roads in the country, in good times and bad.

After completing Skyway Stage 2 ahead of schedule in March this year, CLP together with its longtime joint venture partner, state-owned Philippine National Construction Corporation (PNCC), submitted to the government a proposal for Stage 3 to re-affirm its commitment to continue the Skyway from SLEX to NLEX.

The new elevated roadway will help solve Metro Manila’s traffic congestion by having on and off ramps in strategic locations along its entirety from Buendia, Osmena Avenue, the Pasig River, Araneta Avenue, A. Bonifacio crossing Sergeant A. Rivera all the way to Balintawak.

The Office of the Government Corporate Counsel and the Department of Justice under the Aquino Administration are of the opinion that the CLP-PNCC joint venture partnership has rights to Skyway Stage 3 project.

The new company is ready to support and finance the CLP-PNCC joint venture projects like the Skyway Stage 3 and the Metro Manila Expressway or C6 Stage 4.

'Big name lawyers want to defend Corona'

2011-12-15T18:27:00.001+08:00

Philstar
Read more: http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=758724&publicationSubCategoryId=63

Big name lawyers are lining up and offering their services for free to defend Chief Justice Renato Corona in the impeachment trial at the Senate early next year.

Supreme Court (SC) Administrator Midas Marquez said that the lawyers who will form the defense team for Corona is still being finalized.

"I'm also very pleasantly surprised because there are so many big name lawyers offering their services to the Chief Justice for free," Marquez said in a television interview.

...

Also yesterday, the Integrated Bar of the Philippines (IBP) issued a statement expressing their opposition to Corona's impeachment.

"The impeachment has placed on trial not only the Chief Justice but the entire Supreme Court. The grounds invoked to impeach the Chief Justice refer to collegial decisions of the Supreme Court involving interpretations of law in actual disputes elevated for review," the IBP said in a statement.

It said that in all of the cases cited in the impeachment complaint, Corona merely concurred with the majority or minority opinion and was not the ponente.

Chief Justice vows to block President’s plan to appoint puppet court

2011-12-15T17:59:00.000+08:00

Judges lead solidarity walkout
With Jovee Marie N. Dela Cruz, Jing Villamente and Jaime Pilapil
Read full article: http://www.manilatimes.net/index.php/news/top-stories/13239-corona-lambasts-dictator-aquino

Supreme Court (SC) Chief Justice Renato Corona on Wednesday came out fighting as he pledged to block a supposed plan of President Benigno Aquino 3rd to become a dictator, saying that the
country’s incumbent leader wanted to oust him so that he can appoint a puppet court and control all branches of the government.

...

At least 500 judges and court employees of the Regional Trial Court of Manila also on Wednesday marched to the Supreme Court to show their support for Corona.

Ten High Tribunal justices were also there, as well as justices of the Court of Appeals and the anti-graft court Sandiganbayan.

SC Justices Maria Lourdes Aranal-Sereno and Estela Perlas-Bernabe, who were appointed by Mr. Aquino, did not show up.

Justices Antonio Carpio and Martin Villarama were also not around.

Wearing black shirts and black arm bands, the judges and court employees started their march at 12:20 p.m.

Antonio Eugenio, the president of the Manila Regional Trial Court Judges Association, said that they were fully behind Corona “no matter what the cost.”

Eugenio added that court sessions were suspended.

Proceedings at the 45 branches of the Quezon City (Metro Manila) Regional Court and Metropolitan Trial Court were also suspended after the executive judge ordered a “court holiday’’ in the afternoon.

Some of the estimated 675 Hall of Justice personnel trooped to the SC to listen to Corona’s speech, while others stayed in their offices and just watched the proceedings on their TV sets.
A number of court employees sympathetic to Corona wore black T-shirts.

Malacañang and some members of Congress denounced the declaration of the court holiday.
“Court hearings set for today have been canceled, there are even reports that hearings on the Maguindanao massacre case have been reset so that court employees can attend a hastily planned rally this afternoon in support of [Corona]. If this is true, then one must ask if the judiciary is not being manipulated into participating in one man’s personal issues,” Palace spokesman Edwin Lacierda said.

“We call on members of the judiciary to not let themselves be used to further the political agenda of one man and his patron,” he added.

Related articles:
-Judges lead solidarity walkout http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=758513&publicationSubCategoryId=63
-Strongman rule looms http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/nation/20702-strongman-rule-loomscorona
-Integrated Bar of the Philippines backs Chief Justice http://www.manilastandardtoday.com/insideNews.htm?f=2011/december/15/news1.isx&d=2011/december/15
-Palace ally Hermilando Mandanas who junked impeach rap fired http://www.manilatimes.net/index.php/news/top-stories/13242-palace-ally-who-junked-impeach-rap-fired; http://www.manilastandardtoday.com/insideNews.htm?f=2011/december/15/news2.isx&d=2011/december/15
-http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/344811/corona-hits-pnoy

Opinion:
-Pushing Back http://www.manilastandardtoday.com/insideOpinion.htm?f=2011/december/15/jojorobles.isx&d=2011/december/15
-Pushing us to anarchy http://www.manilastandardtoday.com/insideOpinion.htm?f=2011/december/15/emiljurado.isx&d=2011/december/15

PHL emerging as ‘safe haven’ for investors

2011-12-15T17:35:00.000+08:00

MIGUEL R. CAMUS
Business Mirror
Read full report: http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/top-news/20711-phl-emerging-as-safe-haven-for-investors

Philippine equities will continue to attract investments next year amid stable economic and political prospects, UBS Investments said on Wednesday. But higher stock valuations versus peers and possible disruptions from the European sovereign- debt crisis could pose profit-taking scenarios during the early part of 2012, it added.

“The Philippines is emerging as a safe haven. Normally with risk aversion, Philippines gets the brunt of the selling. Now it seems to be the reverse,” Jody Santiago, executive director of UBS Investments Research, told reporters on Wednesday.

In a briefing, the domestic unit of the Swiss banking giant pegged the one-year target for the benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) at 4,700.

That would be a gain of almost 10 percent from the PSEi’s 4,285.93 close on Wednesday and also reflects UBS Investments’ outlook that Philippine corporate earnings will grow by a tenth in 2012.

Santiago pointed to other factors, such as the country’s minimal sovereign-debt risk and stable
price increases as measured by inflation, which it expects at 3.5 percent. The country’s economic growth is pegged at 3.3 percent next year.

Morgan Stanley says buy PSE

2011-12-15T17:29:00.000+08:00

JOHN MANGUN
OUTSIDE THE BOX
Business Mirror
http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/opinion/20707-morgan-stanley-says-buy-pse

IT is not often that the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) is cited as the place to put your money. So it comes as a bit of a surprise that in the most recent, December 13 Morgan Stanley Asia/GEMs (Global Emerging Markets) Strategy report, the PSE experienced a significant upgrade.
Morgan Stanley, through its MSCI affiliate, is a provider of research and strategy for the global markets to institutional investors. The MSCI creates indexes both globally and regionally in order that these big-time investors have a gauge to judge their own portfolio performance. Further, for both the global and regional markets, Morgan recommends a particular weighting. That is, for example, based on stock-market size, should you have more of your money in Taiwan or in the Philippines?

Morgan says it should be in the PSE as the Philippines was upgraded to “overweight” and Taiwan downgraded to “underweight.”

Twenty countries are included in the GEM list. The Philippines is now included with China, Russia, Brazil and South Africa in the overweight group. Mexico, India and Taiwan are at the bottom all being underweighted. Based on this new assessment of the PSE, going from equal weight to overweight means that the amount of portfolio allocation to the PSE should nearly be doubled.

The Philippines was a big mover on the list, not only going into overweight territory but moving from No. 11 to No. 5. Further, Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. (PLDT) was made a part of the focus list, a type of global model portfolio, including Samsung, Hyundai, BHP Billiton (mining), Telefonica Brazil, and Thailand’s PTT Global Chemicals.

There are two reasons you as an investor should be excited about this Morgan Stanley report. Global-equity portfolio managers pretty well must now buy into the PSE. For them to capture the MSCI index performance, they will need to show that they are overweighted in PSE issues and this must come before the end of the year. This is true window-dressing, not the nonsense you read about in the newspapers.

Do not expect a rush of foreign money into the PSE between now and New Year’s. The political circus that is taking place has effectively killed that. However, the longer-term investment from abroad will come in during the first quarter of 2012 or when the political turmoil is finished.

The second reason this is all very important is why the PSE, in general, and PLDT, in particular, has been upgraded.

Morgan’s target price for PLDT is P3,000 per share. That should be music to your ears considering the stock is trading at P2,454 and Morgan is calling for a more than 20-percent price increase. That would put the PSE Index near my best-case scenario level of 5,000.

Morgan is also expecting an 8.6-percent dividend yield for PLDT, which makes putting your money in PLDT a 30-percent return-on-investment proposition. The expected Price Earnings Ratio (PER) for PLDT is 13.7. Given that a PER of 15 is not unreasonable, we could see an even higher price than P3,000 for the stock.

Why is Morgan so favorable on the Philippines?

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index includes 18 PSE-listed companies. The 2011 performance of these issues is a negative 2.9 percent. That may not seem great but it is in comparison to others. The Brazilian index components are down 17 percent. Malaysia and Thailand are down over 4 percent. Taiwan, India, Peru and China are all down more than 20 percent. The only country that has outperformed the Philippines is Indonesia, down 1.8 percent.

There are three important factors that Morgan looks at. These are Return on Equity (ROE), PER, and currency risk.

The Philippine peso is grouped with Malaysia, Russia and China as having the lowest risk of currency vulnerability to external forces such as current account status and borrowing needs. That is very good seeing as all three of the others “manage” (read manipulate) their foreign-exchange rate. The External Vulnerability Indicator of these four nations is 24 plus. By comparison, Thailand has a rating of 5.5 and Indonesia 3.2. In this case, high score wins.

With an overall trailing PER around 18, the PSE is slightly overvalued. However, it is the corporate Return on Equity where Philippine companies really stand out. ROE simply means, how much money is a company making based on the value of the company. The Philippines ranks No. 3 out of 20 on ROE. And believe it or not, Philippine companies, at least the 18 included in the Morgan index, pay a lot of their profits out in dividends, ranking No. 5.

For political risk, the Philippines ranks No.17 out of 20. Egypt is number 20. No comment.

Buy the PSE. Morgan Stanley says so.

E-mail to mangun@gmail.com and Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by CitisecOnline.com Inc.

President Aquino can stop corruption if he rises above partisanship

2011-12-14T18:20:00.000+08:00

The president needs to put the horse of institution building before the cart of prosecuting his predecessor. Mr. Aquino has a genuine chance here to capitalize on his electoral platform and reform the police and judiciary. Waging a war on Mrs. Arroyo and the Supreme Court garners headlines, but it runs the risk of permanently damaging the judiciary. The best option is to wait to appoint qualified—and nonpartisan—judges to replace the current ones on the bench. The true test of Mr. Aquino's mettle will be whether he continues to support graft-busters when they go after members of his own party.

Read more from the Wall Street Journal.

Related article by Philip Bowring.

Philippines going down the way of dictatorship again?

2011-12-14T11:07:00.002+08:00

Impeachment juggernaut unleashed on Corona
By: Amando Doronila
Philippine Daily Inquirer

Congressional allies of President Aquino impeached Supreme Court Chief Justice Renato Corona on Monday in an unprecedented record time of one day.

With stunning swiftness unparalleled in the history of impeachment in this country, 188 members of the House of Representatives voted to impeach Corona for interfering in the prosecution of former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, comprising more than one-third of the 285 House members, a requirement under the Constitution to impeach a high official.

The rushed impeachment broke several impeachment procedures and historical precedents. First of all, it made Corona the first Filipino chief justice to be impeached; the impeachment marked the first attack on the independence of the Supreme Court through the combined power of both the Executive and Legislative departments in a conspiracy that unleashed a juggernaut to crush the head of the high court as well as to make it subservient to the Chief Executive.

Too many breaches of normal democratic procedures involved in the relationship of checks and balances between the judicial and political branches (the Executive and Legislative) have occurred in the holy crusade claimed to make past officials accountable and to remove officials, notably the Chief Justice for allegedly blocking the administration’s anti-corruption efforts.

These breaches have raised legitimate concerns and questions over whether the impeachment of Corona has already pushed the country down the path of a tyrannical rule by a populist regime disguised as part of the drive to exact accountability for past misdeeds.

Breaches of regular procedures and irregular short-cuts on due process arising from the strikes by the President on the Supreme Court and its leadership, which is accused of protecting the interests of the previous president, have to be highlighted to make the Filipino people aware of the dangers they pose.

The most alarming of these breaches are:

Read more: http://opinion.inquirer.net/19089/impeachment-juggernaut-unleashed-on-corona

ADB’s warning

2011-12-13T09:48:00.000+08:00

Manila Standard
Editorial
http://www.manilastandardtoday.com/sectionOpinion.htm?f=2011/december/12/editorial.isx&d=2011/december/12

President Benigno Aquino III has finally conceded that government underspending did the economy in this year and vowed to do the opposite to lift it from its lethargy.

He and his Cabinet have little choice. The Asian Development Bank has warned that in the event both the eurozone and the US economies contract sharply, the impact on emerging East Asia will be serious, although manageable.

“The turmoil emanating from Europe poses a growing danger to trade and finance within emerging East Asia; so the region’s policymakers must be prepared to act promptly, decisively, and collectively to counter what could be an extended global economic slowdown,” an ADB official said.

The multilateral financing institution is forthright on its assessment of the global economic situation next year. It lowered its growth outlook for the Philippines in 2012 to 4.8 percent from 5.1 percent. But this could even drop to 4.2 percent should the eurozone and US fall into a deep recession next year.

A mere one-percentage-point drop in the economic growth rate means thousands of jobs will be lost, and the economy will be nowhere near to reducing the country’s poverty level. Things could get awry if the government fails to respond to the specter of a deep global economic downturn.

President Aquino has talked of “front-loading” expenses in the early part of 2012 as a way of pump-priming the economy—the way his predecessor did when the sub-prime crisis in the US exploded in 2008. Boosting spending in the early part of the year, especially on infrastructure like roads and bridges, will create the right amount of multiplier effect that will accelerate economic growth.

Government spending in the past had produced the economic results it intended to create. Government spending generates jobs and adds to the consumers’ purchasing power. More importantly, it leads to the construction of more roads, air and sea ports and bridges, which have a long-term effect on the economy.

Dangerous move

2011-12-13T09:36:00.004+08:00

Impeachment of Corona?
SEARCH FOR THE TRUTH
By Ernesto M. Maceda (The Philippine Star)
http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?publicationSubCategoryId=64&articleId=757942

There’s widespread talk that 90 Congressmen are preparing an 8-count impeachment complaint against Supreme Court Chief Justice Renato Corona which will be sent to the Senate without going through the Committee on Justice.

If true, it would be a most damaging act to the independence of the Supreme Court. It would be a blatant abuse of the constitutionally ordained system of checks and balances and inter-branch comity. It may set the table for a revolutionary government.

Fortunately, it will require a vote of 16 Senators to oust the Chief Justice which will be extremely difficult to achieve. Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile, Senators Chiz Escudero, Miriam Defensor-Santiago, Joker Arroyo, Gregorio Honasan and Alan Peter Cayetano have been critical of the President’s twin attacks on the Supreme Court.

Aggravating the situation is the advanced move to impeach SC Justice Mariano del Castillo for plagiarism.

Having a Supreme Court controlled by the President introduces a clear and present danger to the legislature itself and could lead to a dictatorial government.

As our fellow columnist Prof. Alex Magno observed:

“The President may privately disagree with some of the Court’s rulings but republican ethics prohibits him from publicly disagreeing with them. It is the Court, not the President, that is entitled to rule with finality on legal and constitutional disputes. Otherwise, the rule of law dissipates and everything becomes a matter of pedestrian opinion or political popularity. That is the ground on which despotism grows.”

Hold your horses, honorable Members of Congress. Unwittingly, you may also be diminishing the equal standing of the legislative branch.

Fil-Am midwife is 2011 CNN 'Hero of the Year'

2011-12-13T09:15:00.001+08:00

Manila Bulletin
Madel R. Sabater

MANILA, Philippines — A Filipino-American midwife whose foundation built “birthing sanctuaries” for Indonesians was named the 2011 CNN Hero of the Year.

Anderson Cooper announced the name of Robin Lim in a star-studded ceremony last Sunday night at The Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles, California.

Christy Turlington Burns introduced Lim as one of the Top 10 CNN Heroes.

Each of the CNN Heroes received $50,000, and Lim’s non-profit, Bumi Sehat Foundation, will receive an additional $250,000 grant.

Lim’s foundation helped Indonesians who need maternal and general health care.

She is the second CNN Hero of Year of Filipino descent.

In 2009, Filipino Efren Peñaflorida was named CNN Hero of the Year for his “Kariton” classroom project that aims to educate street children.

In Indonesia, women are 300 times more likely to die in childbirth or from pregnancy-related complications than women in developed countries. After Lim’s younger sister died from pregnancy complications, she became a professional midwife and dedicated her life to offering free pre-natal and birthing services to low-income Indonesian women. Since 2003, Lim’s“Yayasan Bumi Sehat” (Healthy Mother Earth) clinic has provided medical assistance to thousands of women in Bali and Aceh, Indonesia.

Read more: http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/344634/filam-midwife-2011-cnn-hero-year

Politics wins and the economy loses

2011-12-13T09:10:00.001+08:00

JOHN MANGUN
OUTSIDE THE BOX
Business Mirror
http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/opinion/20600-politics-wins-and-the-economy-loses

IT is turning out to be a most interesting Christmas season.

If the conversations I heard at the party I attended last Saturday are any indication, 2012 is going to be most interesting also.

Remember Christmas 2000? There was very little holiday cheer but there were heated political discussions as there are now. But what I bet you don’t remember about the year 2000 is the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate. GDP in 2000 grew at 3.6 percent, exactly the same as for the first nine months of 2011.

I suppose it is merely a coincidence that after months of political turmoil and the Edsa 2, GDP grew at only 2.8 percent in 2001.

It would probably be unfair to make any further comparisons between now and then. Some would say the turmoil in the government then was because of government being “evil” and trying to protect itself. Now we are told that the government is “good” and is only trying to protect the people.

However, governments have a very difficult time at multitasking. You, on the other hand, can balance working, family life, social responsibility, and personal fun time. Governments by nature of their size and complexity have trouble doing the public-service equivalent of walking and chewing gum at the same time.

Governments tend to be able to focus only on one issue and let the others stay way on the back burner.

Shoemart, as all large retail establishments, has a problem with customers and employees stealing merchandize. Fact of life and prices are adjusted to reflect the company’s losses.

Imagine for a moment that the Shoemart group decided that it must close all of its stores to concentrate only on setting up a security system to stop shoplifting and employee theft. Any business owner would laugh at that foolish suggestion yet that is exactly what is happening in the government.

The Department of Energy and Natural Resources recognizes that there have been some problems in the past with the issuance of permits for the mining business. In order to make sure that everything is absolutely 100-percent proper, no permits have been issued for months and this policy will probably continue for another six months or longer. Meanwhile, literally dozens and dozens of major investments involving hundreds of millions of dollars have been put on hold.

Unlike Shoemart that knows if it closed its stores, you would shop someplace else, the government believes that these investments will wait patiently and not invest in Peru, Mongolia, Chile, Vietnam, Indonesia and Africa. Good luck with that idea.

Money is very smart and cannot be easily fooled and it tends to be able to look into the future.

While all the “experts” tell us that the prime reason for last year’s good GDP growth and this year’s poor growth was that 2010 was an election year. However, the elections or lack thereof this year may not have much to do with the fact that foreign portfolio and debt inflows to the Philippines have dropped nearly 20 percent year-on-year. In October the inflow was 78 percent lower than in 2010. I hate to mention this, but in 2000, $500 million went out of the country versus $370 million coming in during 1999.

It is very tough to concentrate on the economy when you have other priorities.

Since this current condition is only a battle between “good” and “evil,” it is probably unfair to mention the political aspect. But I will.

Poverty is an economic issue. The “fight against poverty” is a political issue. If the “fight against poverty” were only an economic issue, then it would not matter how many poor people there were. The objective would be to do everything possible insure that all citizens had a decent standard of living.

The government has just reduced the number of poor by 5.3 million. The government lowered the minimum daily subsistence level from P52 to P46 per person. Congratulations to the people earning only P50 a day. You are no longer poor and we don’t have to worry about better jobs for you.

Back to the Christmas party. Over fine wine and cheap brandy, I saw the same attitude and heard words similar to what occurred in 2000.

For the average business person, good versus evil is less important than revenues, bottom lines, and capital expenditures. GDP growth in 2001 was terrible because businesses took a cautious, wait-and-see attitude.

I am seeing that same kind of attitude and business planning now as in 2000. Companies are pulling back and conserving capital and that is not good for the future of the country. I hope Good knows what it is doing or there is going to be Evil for this economy.

E-mail to mangun@gmail.com and Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by CitisecOnline.com Inc.

Mining-related disaster looms in Marinduque

2011-12-13T09:01:00.001+08:00

DENR bureau warns mine wastes spill threaten 2 Marinduque towns
Inquirer.net
According to engineer Mario Alban of the MGB-DENR for Mimaropa (Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon and Palawan provinces), the report on the latest monitoring ...

Farmer, advocacy groups seek total mining ban in Senate
BusinessWorld Online Edition
Her group presented experiences of contaminated irrigation facilities in Palawan and barren rice fields in Marinduque as a result of mining. ...

Mining industry review sought to avert food supply threats
Sun.Star
He made this assertion after Marinduque Governor Carmencita Reyes said lead deposits have renderd the Kalangkang River in her province unable to support ...

Paradox of plenitude
Business Mirror
Conspicuously absent in the hearing were representatives from Palawan's provincial government, although Marinduque Gov. Carmencita Reyes and former ...

No such thing as responsible mining, say farmers
ABS CBN News
Marinduque Governor Carmencita Reyes also told the committee about the effects of the mining disasters in her province in 1993 and 1996, which people ...

Anti-mining campaign pushed in Senate hearing
ABS CBN News
Former Marinduque Rep. Edmund Reyes, meanwhile, reminded senators about the environmental and social costs of mining, like what happened in the Marcopper ...

Marinduque Towns | Inquirer News
DENR bureau warns mine wastes spill threaten 2 Marinduque towns ... the towns of Boac and Mogpog, not just from a leaky Marinduque Copper Mining Corp. ...
newsinfo.inquirer.net/tag/marinduque-towns

GMA News interview with Brian Viloria

2011-12-12T14:33:00.001+08:00

Biggest hydroelectric power dam facility in Asia completed soon

2011-12-12T14:05:00.001+08:00

PHL’s biggest irrigation project seen to be completed ahead of schedule
ORLY GUIRAO
http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/component/content/article/53-agri-commodities/20517-phls-biggest-irrigation-project-seen-to-be-completed-ahead-of-schedule

ROSALES, Pangasinan— At the speed Chinese engineers are moving earth, rocks, cement and steel, the completion of the country’s biggest irrigation project is expected to come way, way ahead of schedule.

Already, since China Camce Engineering Co. Ltd. actually started work early last year on the 86-hectare re-regulating pond of the San Roque multipurpose dam in San Manuel, Pangasinan, considered the biggest hydroelectric power dam facility in Asia, 81 percent of the job has been finished.

The Chinese firm which won the bidding at a contract price of $93.8 million, went on three-work shifts immediately after laying the pond’s sprawling foundation, said Reynaldo Mencias, project manager of the Agno River Integration Irrigation Program (ARIIP).

“The Chinese engineers are all young, full of vitality and work on precision,” Mencias noted, as he pointed out that the accomplishment exceeds the expected target of 76 percent for the period.

“A little over $72 million has already been pumped into the project,” the ARIIP chief said.

Barring any untoward incidents, the big pond will start service operations in time with the main palay cropping season n June next year, Mencias said.

Mainly funded by a soft loan of $89.1 million with China Export-Import Bank, the commissioning of the re-regulating pond is expected to increase crop yield and cropping intensity by 150 percent with the full irrigation of 34,450 hectares of farmlands on opposite banks of the Agno River.

In cadence with the engineering works on the pond, ARIIP is rushing up the rehabilitation of 67.06 kilometers of existing main irrigation canals, along with 327.85 kilometers of lateral canals.

Some 280 kilometers of farm-to-market roads are also in simultaneous rehabilitation works in anticipation of the increased farming activities within ARIIP’s service area covering 28,207 farm families in 18 towns of Pangasinan.

At a total cost of P11.2 billion, ARIIP as an irrigation component of the San Roque multipurpose dam started in November 2006. The project is expected to go on full-swing services on or before December 2013 with the completion of rehabilitation works on all of ARIIP’s facilities.

According to Mencias, the rehabilitation of the irrigation system is funded by the national government at an estimated cost of P4.1 billion.

“As a reservoir, the re-regulating pond augments the dam’s flood prevention component as it will store 5 million cubic meters of water siphoned from the main dam structure,” Mencias said, as he stressed that the stored volume of water will be released for irrigation via the pond’s sluice way at an average of 560 cu. meter per second.

With the reservoir, the provincial government intends to siphon water from the facility to solve a water crisis now gripping households in 20 coastal towns of the province.

Provincial Administrator Rafael Baraan said a memorandum of agreement signed recently with the National Irrigation Administration will allow the flow of at least five cu. cm. of water from the reservoir to the Pangasinan Bulk Water Supply Project which the provincial government has committed to build.

Under the scheme, the siphoned water will be rationed out to houses in towns and cities whose deep wells are now fast drying up and severely affected by salt-water intrusion.

But on top of everything, Mencias said the reservoir will be a stable source of water needed in palay production, vegetable growing and root-crop farming.

PHL coconut exports to reach $2B, says PCA

2011-12-12T14:02:00.001+08:00

ENNIFER A. NG
Business Mirror

ROBUST demand for various coconut products, particularly coconut oil, in foreign markets will enable the Philippines to earn around $2 billion in export receipts from various coconut products, the Philippine Coconut Authority (PCA) said on Thursday.

PCA Administrator Euclides Forbes disclosed that around 80 percent of the export receipts projected for the year is expected to come from coconut oil.

http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/component/content/article/53-agri-commodities/20406-phl-coconut-exports-to-reach-2b-says-pca

All-laser cataract procedure--first in Asia

2011-12-12T13:45:00.001+08:00

American Eye Center launches most advanced method of cataract surgery
Manila Bulletin
http://mb.com.ph/node/343947/a

MANILA, Philippines — A new treatment for cataracts has just been unveiled by American Eye Center (AEC), which promises to provide patients with the most advanced all-laser cataract procedure---the first of its kind in Asia.

Dubbed the Alcon LenSx femtosecond laser surgery, this new equipment brings an unprecedented level of safety, speed and precision in treating cataracts, and enhances the host of options for surgical-based methods that AEC offers its clients.

From a surgical perspective, advances in cataract treatment have improved the way ophthalmologists deal with this condition in the past two decades. We have seen how the merger of technology and surgical ingenuity contributed to making cataract surgery the modern-day miracle that it is today.

Currently, it can remove the cataract through a very small (2-3mm) incision in the eyeball using fine surgical blades and implant a multifocal intraocular lens (IOL) that restores full functional vision in patients after surgery. This is called “Phacoemulsification”, presently the standard in cataract practice worldwide. Unfortunately, this procedure has often been mistakenly referred to as “laser eye surgery”—which it is NOT. It is more appropriate to call this procedure “small-incision cataract surgery”, “sutureless cataract surgery”, or “no-stitch cataract surgery” for the layman.

True laser-assisted cataract surgery has never been available to patients until today—with the introduction of the Alcon LenSx femtosecond laser surgery.

The Alcon LenSX femtosecond laser differs from the traditional methods of cataract surgery by the absence of the blade. By using very short yet intense bursts of near-infrared light, the Alcon LenSX femtosecond laser technology is able to create extremely precise subsurface cuts without manual intervention

The blades used to create the small incisions in the eye have been completely replaced by this laser, making the incisions more precise and predictable.

In addition, the circular opening that is created in the human lens in order to access the cataract (called a capsulotomy) which was traditionally performed by human hands has now been replaced by the femtosecond laser, making the capsulotomies more architecturally round and centered.

Studies have shown that this is very important in intraocular lens stability and refractive predictability of surgical outcomes (In one study by the American Academy of Ophthalmology, femtosecond laser incisions achieved perfect capsulotomy diameter accuracy in 100 percent of cases).

The actual cataract is also fragmented by the femtosecond laser making it much easier and less traumatic for the surgeon to remove and clean it up prior to placement of the IOL. In short, the femtosecond laser has replaced many of the steps in the cataract surgery that were previously performed by human hands, i.e., resulting in less surgical error and better predictability of outcomes. Results are more precise than any other previous or current methods of cataract surgery.

Dr. Cesar Ramon G. Espiritu, who specializes in Cornea, External Disease treatment at AEC, said that this new technology shows the company’s commitment to provide the best eye care to its patients.

“The Alcon LenSx femtosecond laser surgery is currently the most advanced method for cataract treatment, and we’re proud to be the first in Asia to offer it,” he says. “We want thousands of Filipinos suffering from cataracts to see that treatment is now even faster, much safer, more precise and definitely pain-free.”

Anthony Leuterio: one more Filipino to emulate

2011-12-12T13:42:00.001+08:00

High-end. Hi-Fi sound. Filipino.
A-Audio Speakers
By ANJO PEREZ
Manila Bulletin
http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/344536/highend-hifi-sound-filipino

MANILA, Philippines — Filipino audiophiles have a lot of reason to be delighted and at the same time, proud of this Christmas season. For those who are just about to spend tens or even hundreds of thousands in hard earned cash for a new hi-end speaker system, stop! Hold on first to your dough and audition the A-Audio speakers—the first ever all-Filipino designed and made hi-fidelity speakers in the country.

Before burning holes in your pockets buying imported and branded speakers, why not try and listen to Anthony Leuterio’s “A-Audio” speakers first which are 100 percent Filipino designed and made.

Anthony, is a be-medaled Electronics and Communications Engineering graduate from the Mapua Institute of Technology in Intramuros.

He designed his first home theater speakers back in 1999, at 20 years of age, taking apart surplus speakers from Japan sold at the Port of Manila, tweaking its internals and putting them back together to make a better-sounding speaker system.

Due to his knack for electronics, some consider Anthony as a nerd as he was so smart--he was accelerated in high school skipping over third year.

In 1997, he became the gold medalist in the TESDA organized National Electronics Competition by putting together a regulated power supply in 11 minutes flat.

An inventor by heart, Anthony came out with a tried and tested fuel-economy gadget for a vehicles but had to drop the idea after being duped by some pseudo investors who took and sold his invention but never paid him back.

After realizing that it would be too cumbersome to run after his pseudo partners, he concentrated on designing and manufacturing high-fidelity speakers due to his natural love for music.

According to Anthony, he was intrigued by the excessively high price tags of hi-fidelity speakers that were made in Europe.

In 1997, he started researching on the design and details of these highly priced speakers.

Through friends who owned expensive speakers, he started repairing and tweaking high-end speakers and took notes of every nook and cranny of each speaker that he worked on.

Having worked on a big number of expensive speakers including brands like Bowers and Wilkins, Bose, Cayin, Klipsch, Transmission Audio, Tidal, Moon Audio, KEF, Magico, Marten, NTT Audio Lab, Hansen Audio, German Physiks, Shape Audio, and Harbeth, just to name a few, he studied the internals and design of each of the speakers and through reverse engineering, Anthony was able to draw the similarities of all the high-end speakers and came out with his very own design for the drivers, crossovers and box design.

After years of research and over 1000 pairs of speakers broken down into pieces and repaired, Anthony was able to understand not only the basics of the high-end speakers but the reason for their high price tags as well. According to Anthony, most of these speakers have the same drivers and crossover designs.

What make them highly expensive are the mark-ups of each manufacturer for promotions, advertisements, and marketing costs.

In his dream to be the very first Filipino inventor to produce high-quality speakers that surpass European and American standards without the extremely high price tag, Anthony came out with his own speaker design, from the cones, to the coils, to the magnets and materials used, and had it produced by Fostex in Taiwan and have it shipped to Manila where his team assembles it from scratch.

In 2005, Paranaque Congressman Ed Zialcita helped out Anthony by ordering 1,200 pairs of speakers that provided him seed money in purchasing machineries and other power tools to make his production meet international standards and be more efficient.

To date, Anthony has a lineup of 40 different speaker systems ranging from the book-shelf speakers to high-end cinema speakers—that will put high-end expensive speakers to shame.

Anthony, who has the Filipino audiophile website PinoyDVD.com to thank for giving him the break in the industry, said he has produced more than 12,000 speakers ranging from car, bookshelf, home theater, full-range audio and cinematic speakers with a price range between Php 3,500 to P120,000.

A-Audio now has a lineup of over 40 different speakers that are made on special order basis as his shop can only produce four pairs per day.

SC bashing, in bad taste

2011-12-11T10:36:00.001+08:00

FLIPSIDE
Atty. Dodo Dulay
Manila Times
http://www.manilatimes.net/index.php/opinion/columnist1/12991-sc-bashing-in-bad-taste

Crass and raffish. That’s how I would describe President Aquino’s recent tirade against the Supreme Court (SC) and Chief Justice Renato Corona during the First National Criminal Justice Summit hosted by the Department of Justice. In what was supposed to be a gathering of stakeholders of the justice system to collectively forge strategies towards the enhanced delivery of justice, President Aquino said nothing about improving the Philippine criminal justice system and all about how the SC and the Chief Justice had supposedly frustrated his efforts to hold accountable those implicated in corruption allegations against the Arroyo administration. President Aquino’s use of his bully pulpit to attack and insult the Chief Justice who was seated a few arms length away, leaves a bad taste in the mouth. It is undignified, un-presidential and un-Filipino.

Throughout the President’s diatribe, the Chief Justice remained stoic and impassive. And rightly so. Because unlike ordinary citizens, members of the Bench are prohibited by ethical rules from publicly responding to attacks or criticisms because any response to critics of a judge’s actions or motives places that judge in a potentially adversarial position that may cast reasonable doubt on his capacity to act impartially as a judge. That is why the Code of Judicial Conduct prohibits judges from making any public comments that may be perceived as affecting the outcome or fairness of the legal proceedings before him.

Supreme Court Administrator and Spokesman Midas Marquez was right when he said President Aquino’s tirade was unnecessary, saying the statements made by the President only undermined the independence of the Court. “It’s not unusual for the Executive branch to disagree with the Judicial branch. But what is considerably unusual is for the Chief Executive to look down on the members of the judiciary in public at a Justice Sector Coordinating Council session, and to their faces denounce the Court’s independent actions, as the Chief Justice sat speechless, motionless and expressionless because of the requirements of protocol,” Marquez added.

Even administration allies seem to agree. Senator Ping Lacson warned that the President’s attitude toward the Supreme Court could be replicated at the local level and “lead to anarchy.” “If this is what they witness in the national level, a governor might be encouraged to defy the local judge and not implement his decision. Or a mayor can defy a metropolitan trial court regarding an ordinance. The situation could get worse,” Lacson says. Even Senator Gregorio Honasan warned against continued attacks on the High Tribunal: “It is not good for our people and the international community to witness the protracted tension among branches of government. If we erode the credibility or impartiality of the highest court of the land, what are the alternatives? Where do we run to for resolution?”

Unfettered criticism of the Supreme Court, in general, or the Chief Justice, in particular, regardless of motive, severely diminishes the public’s confidence in the judiciary and hinders the efficient administration of justice. It is even more dangerous when demagogic politicians like President Aquino mobilize popular sentiment against the Supreme Court. Politically, these incessant and confrontational attacks and criticisms on the High Tribunal have the cumulative effect of diminishing or regulating the powers and independence of the judiciary as a whole.

If the Aquino administration is to preserve our democratic system of government, it must learn to observe the delicate balance between the executive and judicial branches of government as enshrined in our constitution. That means the President must accept the Supreme Court’s ruling as correct even if he believes it is wrong – moreso because he has sworn to uphold the Constitution, and not just those parts he agrees with. If he deliberately refuses to enforce a Supreme Court ruling, he may be impeached or removed from office for failing to uphold the constitution. So the threat of impeachment hangs over the President’s head as a means to enforce all of the laws, including the ones which he may not like. That is the essence of democracy.

True, the President has every right – as does every Filipino – to express his views and concerns. But his right to free speech and expression must be tempered by the civility and decorum expected of his office – a protocol seemingly lost on the President during the summit. On the other hand, by being so gracious and well-mannered despite the President’s boorish behavior, Chief Justice Renato Corona showed why he deserves to be Chief Justice of the Philippine Supreme Court.

S. Korean firm eyes $1B power projects in Philippines

2011-12-10T12:29:00.001+08:00

By: Amy R. Remo
Philippine Daily Inquirer

Korea Water Resources Corp., the leading water resources and power company in South Korea, is looking to invest as much as $1 billion in equity for various water and power projects in the Philippines over the next three years.

Specifically, K-Water is considering the installation of floating solar power systems at the Angat Dam and the construction of the Kapangan hydropower project in Benguet, said K-Water representative in the Philippines, Jiheun (Peter) Yun.

According to Yun, the company is willing to invest as much as $60 million to install the “floating solar power system” in any of the dams in Luzon.

Once installed, it will be the first of its kind anywhere in the Philippines, the company claimed.

K-Water has already begun talks with potential partners including the Ayala group and conglomerate San Miguel Corp.

K-Water explained in a separate statement that the floating solar power system involved the setting up of solar panels in a reservoir, which would allow it to generate higher power output and, at the same time, create an ideal environment for fish spawning since it constrains green algae.

Yun told reporters that the company would initially install a system that could generate 10 megawatts.

Read more: http://business.inquirer.net/34405/s-korean-firm-eyes-1b-power-projects-in-philippines

Aviation trainer plans state-of-the-art simulator

2011-12-10T11:42:00.001+08:00

DARWIN G. AMOJELAR
Manila Times

A GLOBAL aviation training services provider on Friday said it would construct a state-of-the-art Airbus full flight simulator in Clark, Pampanga.

In a briefing, Kunal Sharma, chief operating officer of Alpha Aviation Group Philippines said the Airbus A320 Level D Full Flight Simulator would cost “more than $10 million.”

The new flight simulator would provide Alpha Aviation the capability to deliver 6,000 hours of training annually, roughly enough to prepare 300 new pilots for certification.

Sharma said Maybank is providing the financing for the acquisition of the state-of-the-art simulator.

...

The company said about 80 percent of the training it provides is for Filipinos employed by local airlines such as Airphil Express, Cebu Pacific, Zest Air, and Southeast Asian Airlines. International clients include Air Arabia and Jet Airways.

Launched in 2006, AAG Ph is one of three academies under the UK based provider of specialist training solutions to the international commercial aviation community.

Read more: http://www.manilatimes.net/index.php/business/top-business-news/12891-aviation-trainer-plans-state-of-the-art-simulator

Whom we deserve

2011-12-10T11:37:00.001+08:00

Manila Standard
Editorial

They do it for the numbers; they do it for the show. We applaud our leaders’ antics however frivolous, reward them in the popularity polls, and then wonder why this country never seems to get anywhere.

The President’s Pulse Asia ratings for the third quarter this year show that he enjoys the approval and trust of the public, by 77 and 75 percent, respectively. What he did to deserve those figures still baffles; what he has done to get them is, however, palpable, if not blatant.

President Benigno Aquino III has become the ultimate crowd pleaser. He chooses his enemies well and times his tantrums to perfection. He foists himself as the touchstone upon which revered institutions such as the Supreme Court should be measured, and even members of the intelligentsia exclaim, “well done!”

He tickles them blue with the promise of vengeance, and the public proclaims him hero. Underperforming in anything outside of prosecuting the Arroyos, he was given by survey respondents “passing grades” on all national issues against which his performance was evaluated.

Read more: http://www.manilastandardtoday.com/sectionOpinion.htm?f=2011/december/10/editorial.isx&d=2011/december/10

Ex-Pres. Gloria Arroyo arrives at new detention site

2011-12-09T16:27:00.001+08:00

LBG/RSJ/VVP, GMA News
http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/241212/news/nation/ex-pres-gloria-arroyo-arrives-at-new-detention-site

UPDATED 4:16 p.m. - Former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo left the St. Luke's Medical Center (SLMC) in Taguig City past 3:00 p.m. Friday, and arrived at the Veterans Memorial Medical Center (VMMC) in Quezon City after an hour of travel to serve her hospital arrest.

The former Chief Executive, now representing Pampanga's second district in the House of Representatives, rode a coaster van that was part of a seven-vehicle convoy, a report on GMA News TV said.

A Pasay City court had ordered the transfer of Mrs. Arroyo, who was arrested last month after getting charged with fraud in the 2007 elections, to the VMMC by Friday. But her camp had questioned a government plan to airlift the former leader, saying it was not consulted.

Reports indicated that Mrs. Arroyo was ready to be transferred to VMMC as early as 6 a.m.

Former President to be transferred by land Friday afternoon

2011-12-09T15:35:00.001+08:00

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/video/101831/arroyo-ililipat-by-land-sa-vmmc-ayon-sa-kanyang-mga-abugado

Philippine forex reserves top $76b

2011-12-09T09:42:00.001+08:00

by Roderick T. dela Cruz
Manila Standard
http://www.manilastandardtoday.com/insideBusiness.htm?f=2011/december/8/business1.isx&d=2011/december/8

The country’s stock of dollars and other foreign exchange reserves hit a new record of $76.35 billion at the end of November, enough to cover all foreign debt, as remittances, outsourcing revenues, and foreign funds continued to flow into the country.

Bangko Sentral Governor Amando Tetangco Jr. said the gross international reserves rose $500 million from $75.83 billion recorded in October, led by higher income from investments abroad and foreign exchange operations of the Bangko Sentral, foreign currency deposits by banks and the national government as well as higher prices of gold.

The reserves over a 12-month period rose $15.78 billion or 26 percent from $60.57 billion registered in November 2010.

The Bangko Sentral was originally expecting the GIR to be in the range of $68 billion to $70 billion by end-2011, but that level was breached as early as July. The forecast was revised to $75 billion and later to $76 billion.

The increase in reserves was led by the strong balance of payments position of the Philippine economy, which is projected to yield a surplus of at least $10 billion this year, according to Tetangco.

At $76.35 billion, the foreign exchange reserves could easily cover the country’s total foreign debt amounting to only $61.4 billion as of June 2011.

“The end-November 2011 GIR could cover 11.2 months worth of imports of goods and payments of services and income. It was also equivalent to 10.7 times the country’s short-term external debt based on original maturity and 6.5 times based on residual maturity,” said the Bangko Sentral.

Short-term debt based on residual maturity refers to outstanding external debt with original maturity of one year or less, plus principal payments on medium- and long-term loans of the public and private sectors falling due within the next 12 months.

Data showed that the gold components of the reserves hit $8.06 billion as of November, up from $7.9 billion in October and $6.9 billion a year ago.

Foreign investments of the Bangko Sentral grew to $66.22 billion in November from $65.9 billion in the previous month and $52 million a year earlier.

Other components of the reserves were $444.5 million in reserve position in the International Monetary Fund, $1.14 billion in special drawing rights and $482.6 million in foreign exchange.

Transfer of Mrs Arroyo

2011-12-09T09:23:00.001+08:00

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/video/101775/panayam-ni-rhea-santos-kay-elena-bautista-horn-spokesperson-ni-arroyo

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/video/101767/mga-tagasuporta-ni-arroyo-dumating-sa-st-luke-s-medical-center

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7erAZcsEHKE&feature=player_embedded#!

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/video/101807/paglipat-kay-ex-pres-arroyo-sa-vmmc-inaantabayanan-pa-rin

GMA News exclusive interview with former President Arroyo

2011-12-09T09:15:00.001+08:00

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/video/101743/exclusive-rep-gloria-arroyo-binuweltahan-ang-aquino-administration

Currency collapse or stock-market boom?

2011-12-08T08:19:00.001+08:00

JOHN MANGUN
OUTSIDE THE BOX
Business Mirror
http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/opinion/20375-currency-collapse-or-stock-market-boom

‘There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final or total catastrophe of the currency system involved”: Ludwig von Mises

Ludwig von Mises died at the age of 92 in 1973. Yet his words written decades before tell exactly what is happening today.

The journey to debt oblivion began in 1913 when the US created the Federal Reserve Bank, a private institution that was given the power to control the currency. Events during the next 60 years, including the outcome of the two world wars, the creation of a socialist/communist state in Russia, and technological innovation, brought the US to the position of being the largest and most important engine of global economic activity. In 1971 the long- term plan to give major governments absolute control of currency was fulfilled by the ending of convertibility of currency to gold or silver.

You cannot have unlimited credit without having unlimited currency. For the last 40 years, the world has had both.

Italy and Spain, with a total population of just over 106 million, will need to borrow $330 billion in 2012 just to refinance their existing debt. That additional debt is the same as each working person in these two countries working an extra month for free, just to pay that debt. That is impossible. Only printed money can “solve” the problem.

The European Union will announce today or tomorrow a “solution” to its debt problem. However, as Dr. Mises stated clearly, the only viable option is to stop borrowing and work for as long as it takes to pay off the debt, this time with real created wealth. But that is not on the table for discussion.

The governments’ solution is to continue debt expansion but with more control. The bottom line is that money printing is not going to stop.

According to Mises, that will cause the collapse of the currency system.

The one thing that Mises could not foresee was that now, people in the West are totally dependent on the government for their existence.

In the West, one-third to one-half of total private economic activity goes back to the government in taxes. Those taxes are used to feed, clothe and shelter the people through handouts, subsidies, and government employment.

I think Mises underestimated the ability of the global governments to continue with a corrupt system. He believed the corruption of the debt- based system would cause its eventual failure. I think Mises was wrong. I believe governments can keep it going for as long as they want to.

However, there will be more dependence on the government for a person’s basic needs, a lowering of the standard of living in the West, and higher inflation.

Roman satirist and poet Juvenal wrote in A.D. 100, “The people anxiously hope for just two things: bread and circuses.” The Roman government gave out free wheat and staged expensive circuses to maintain power. It keeps the peoples’ minds off other issues, too.

On October 13, 2008, the title of this column was “The death of debt-based wealth” and I wrote, “The stock market? Wait a few weeks and you will see the best buying opportunity [probably near 1,950] since 2003 when the index was at 1,000.”

I was wrong. The Philippine Stock Exchange index hit a low of around 1,750 the week of November 21, 2008. In March 2009, prices started taking off to the current level of 4,300.

The reason I mention this is that in 2009, massive money printing started and the global stock market staged massive rallies. In the 21st century, there is no better “bread and circus” than a stock-market boom.

The government says it costs 5 percent more in November 2011 than in November 2010 for all your basic goods. Do you believe that is true with P200 pork and the current price of gasoline? But this is true; the PSE is 6.5-percent higher than in November 2010.

Western stock markets have performed poorly this year. The Dow Jones dropped 8 percent in early November when investors thought governments might allow default by “voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion.” During the last week of November, the Dow Jones rose 8 percent as the governments’ attempt to find a “solution” through money printing.

If you believe that governments will allow a currency collapse, head for the mountains. If you believe that they will find a “solution,” head for the Philippine Stock Exchange, as you should have in 2008.

Get your stock investment prepared now.

****

E-mail to mangun@gmail.com and Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by CitisecOnline.com Inc.

BlackRock's Bob Doll: Obama Goes on Attack to Hide His Weak Track Record

2011-12-08T08:14:00.001+08:00

Moneynews.com
http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/BlackRock-Obama-Attack-Weak/2011/12/07/id/420207?s=al&promo_code=DA97-1

President Barack Obama has stepped up politically divisive campaign rhetoric and will continue to do so, often going negative because he's done little positive to heal the economy, says Bob Doll, chief equities strategist at BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager. [Read more]

(Hmmm....doesn't that sound familiar!?)

Birth control drugs can cause fatal blood clots

2011-12-07T10:44:00.001+08:00

Birth control drugs under scrutiny
Manila Bulletin
http://mb.com.ph/node/343857/birth-control-drug

WASHINGTON (AP) – Birth control drugs that were heavily promoted as having fewer side effects and the ability to clear up acne and other hormonal bothers are under new scrutiny from US safety regulators.

Research suggesting that newer birth control formulations are more likely to cause blood clots than older drugs has prompted the Food and Drug Administration to consider new safety measures in meetings later this week. The increased risk is slight, but significant because blood clots can cause heart attacks, strokes and blockages in lungs or blood vessels, which can be fatal.

Regulators could order new warning labels on several contraceptives that gained popularity in the last decade, including Bayer's pill Yaz, which was the best-selling birth control pill in the US for 2008 and 2009.

Yaz, its Bayer precursor Yasmin, and similar drugs use a version of a female hormone that appears to reduce side effects found in older drugs, including bloating and mood swings.

On Tuesday, a judge unsealed several court documents suggesting Bayer may have withheld data from the FDA about the blood clot risks of its drugs. The documents stem from expert opinion gathered by personal injury lawyers suing Bayer on behalf of patients.

Bayer AG spent more than $270 million on TV and magazine advertisements for Yaz between 2007 and 2010, according TNS Media Intelligence. Such big-budget campaigns are rare for birth control products. One advertisement featured young women singing the Twisted Sister anthem, “We're Not Gonna Take It,” while popping balloons labeled “moodiness,” “bloating” and “acne.”

Sales of Yaz have fallen since regulators forced Bayer to correct advertisements that overstated Yaz's benefits and as safety questions drew scrutiny in both the US and Europe.

FDA also is reviewing research on clot risks associated with Johnson & Johnson's weekly Ortho Evra patch, which is marketed as an “option for busy women who are looking to simplify life.” The drug uses a different version of the female hormone progestin.

Millions of women have used the products since they launched a decade ago, but recent studies comparing the medical histories of women taking the newer drugs to older ones suggest a slightly higher risk of blood clots in the legs and lungs. Last year, the US market for female contraceptive drugs totaled $3.4 billion, according to IMS Health.

Sorting out the blood clot risk of birth control drugs is especially difficult because all hormone-based drugs increase the risk of clotting. Further complicating the matter is that clots can be caused by factors such as smoking, obesity or family history.

Yaz, Yasmin and other pills containing a synthetic hormone called drospirenone are the focus of a discussion Thursday. The next day's meeting focuses on the Ortho Evra patch, which uses the hormone norelgestromin.

Bayer says its studies have shown no difference in blood clot risk between its drugs and the older birth control drugs. But several large, independent studies suggest the risk with Yaz and similar medications is slightly higher. The latest analysis by the FDA estimates the risk of a blood clot with drospirenone-containing pills is 1.5-fold higher than other hormone-based contraceptives. That translates into an estimated 10 in 10,000 women on the newer drugs experiencing a blood clot, compared with 6 in 10,000 women on older contraceptives, according to the FDA.

“It's a very small percentage of patients that develop these, but it's such a serious side effect that I think doctors have to use a lot of caution,” said Dr. Jennifer Wu, of Lenox Hill Hospital in New York.

Even if Yaz and other newer drugs get additional warning labels some doctors say they don't expect to stop prescribing them. They point out that the risk of blood clots with any birth control pill is still far lower than that associated with pregnancy and birth, when hormone levels and reduced blood flow increase clotting risk.

“At the end of the day I tell my patients the absolute risk is still very, very low compared to pregnancy and post-partum risk,” said Dr. Rebecca Starck, of Cleveland Clinic's Fairview Hospital. “There are still many benefits to combination birth control pills.”

The Ortho Evra patch already carries warning labels about an increased risk of blood clots compared with pills. Some, but not all, studies suggest patch users have twice the risk of clots. The FDA will try to further define that risk using the latest data.

Most birth control drugs use a combination of two female hormones, estrogen and progestin, to stop ovulation and help block sperm. But for decades many women have reported bloating and mood swings as side effects.

Get ready for the big move

2011-12-06T13:04:00.001+08:00

JOHN MANGUN
OUTSIDE THE BOX
Business Mirror
http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/opinion/20270-get-ready-for-the-big-move

AT a luncheon many years ago, I had the privilege of sitting across the table from Dr. Sixto K. Roxas. Dr. Roxas is a man to be listened to, as his experience is so wide. An educator, corporate executive and investment banker, this is a man who comes to the conversation with a perspective that is enviable.

Dr. Roxas studied the history of the Philippines and came to conclusion that every six years, more or less, the nation went through a tumultuous period that created far-reaching changes. Long years after our conversation, the Estrada impeachment proceedings began and eventually Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo became the President. It has been nearly 11 years since Edsa 2 and like then, the climate is turning tumultuous.

However, I have no intention of entering the conflict of discussion about separation of powers and such. There are others more qualified than I to figure out the “rights” and the “wrongs” and the implication of all the players’ actions.

I will speak, though, about the stock market.

The business headlines yesterday tell part of the reason I find stock-market trading irresistible. The Philippine Daily Inquirer said, “Philippine stocks forecast to rise” while the Philippine Star quoted opinions that, “Stocks seen listless this week.” Can both opinions be true? Absolutely. In a sense, the writers of those headlines represent the basic contrary opinions of the stock-market participants; the buyers and sellers.

As I have said so many times before, buyers buy because they believe prices will never be any lower than today. Otherwise, why buy now? Sellers believe prices will never go any higher and that is what makes for a stock market.

Do not think either, that the opinions held by the buyers and the sellers at the stock market are any less emotional and strong as the opinions held by those in the political arena. Everything is clearly black and white. For politics, it is always that opinions are either right or wrong. For the stock market, it is always that prices will go up or down. There is no gray area.

While the front pages of the newspapers talk about the tug-of-war going on in the political front, there is no less a “war” happening on the Philippine Stock Exchange between the buyers and the sellers that will determine the future of stock prices.

Buyers believe that conditions will move prices higher; sellers believe the opposite and see prices moving lower in the months ahead. Simplistically, some pundits believe that presidential power must be strongly used for the good of the country. Others are convinced that strong control of that power is most important.

Back to Dr. Sixto’s cycles. Twelve years ago the Philippine Stock-Exchange index was priced at 2,000. Now the index is well above 4,000. Sure, there have been ups and downs, with the index falling as low as 1,000 in 2003. However, the market is up over 100 percent in 12 years.

Dr. Sixto told me of minor three-year cycles also. Now it gets interesting. From 2000 to 2003, the market was down 50 percent from 2,000 to 1,000. In the next three-year cycle, the market doubled up from 1,000 back to 2,000. During the period 2006 to 2009, prices went on the roller coaster, first going higher by 75 percent and then falling all the way back down to 2006 levels in 2009. And the ride was not over. From 2009 to now, nearly in 2012, we again have witnessed the index double from 2,000 to over 4,000.

What’s the point?

The point is that the stock market is now building an incredible amount of pressure to make a large move not seen since beginning in 2000.

One column here could give you a very detailed and hopefully accurate prediction that prices are going to reach highs that are unexpected. Likewise, another could equally give you an analysis of why prices are going down, much in the same way the two newspaper headlines disagree.

There are clues all around us as to what the future will bring if we know where and how to look for them. Pagasa said a few days ago that we would have some rain this week. It was not a guess or a hunch or magical wisdom. It was a reading of the evidence in front of them. Only, they have the experience to understand and interpret the data.

If you are a stock-market investor, come by mangunonmarkets.com and subscribe to the Premium Area to get prepared.

We are soon going to see movement on the PSE that we will look back on as a monumental event.

****

E-mail to mangun@gmail.com and Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by CitisecOnline.com Inc.

Subdued growth

2011-12-05T18:12:00.001+08:00

Manila Standard
Editorial
http://www.manilastandardtoday.com/sectionOpinion.htm?f=2011/december/5/editorial.isx&d=2011/december/5

The Aquino administration clearly missed the boat on boosting the economy this year. With nearly P300 billion in budget deficit to spare, the government did not take advantage of the leeway. The result of the underspending was evident—the economy grew just 3.2 percent in the third quarter when it could have fared much better.

The 2011 budget enacted by the Aquino administration allocated billions of funds for pump-priming activities in the hope of achieving a 5-percent to 6-percent economic growth amid the weak global environment and falling export markets. The government, instead, chose to be “cautious” and withheld spending on infrastructure projects.

The economic managers appeared to have failed to apprise President Benigno Aquino III of the severity of the global market conditions resulting from the Arab Spring, the deadly earthquake in Japan in March, and the worsening debt crisis in the Eurozone. All these unfolded in succession while the US, the world’s largest economy, struggled to create jobs and lift its gross domestic product.

The confluence of these events increased world oil prices, put Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, into deeper recession, and slowed down global expansion. Philippine exports reeled in the face of a dwindling global market, especially for electronics, and the local economy petered out.

The government, for unexplained reasons, did not bother about what was happening to the rest of the world, nor did it resort to pump-priming to counter the effects of the slowing global economy. It continued to underspend, with cement and construction companies feeling the brunt of the restrained economic activities.

Economists acknowledge that government spending is key to boosting growth. It will again be a critical factor in the coming months. Bangko Sentral Governor Amando Tetangco Jr. agreed that government spending must pick up to spur economic growth in the coming quarters.

Tetangco said while lower interest rates would increase economic activity, public expenditures were “a more effective way of generating internal growth.”

The previous administration had “front-loaded” the bulk of the deficit spending, especially in infrastructure, in the early part of the year to take advantage of the good weather conditions. There is no reason why the current administration could not do the same. The multiplier effect of pump-priming is too great to ignore.

Pro-RH rallyists get paid

2011-12-05T18:04:00.001+08:00

No delay but RH bill won’t be passed this year—Enrile
By Christian V. Esguerra
Philippine Daily Inquirer
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/103857/no-delay-but-rh-bill-won%E2%80%99t-be-passed-this-year%E2%80%94enrile

Are opponents of the reproductive health (RH) bill intentionally delaying the passage of the measure or are its proponents simply in a hurry?

Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile on Thursday doubted Senate Bill No. 2865 would be passed by the chamber before Congress goes on its Christmas break in two weeks.

But he made it clear that he and the other senators who had expressed reservations about the bill were not trying to delay its passage.

“I don’t think it will pass this year,” he said at the weekly Senate media forum. “There are (still) many issues to be clarified. We are not delaying it.”

Majority Leader Vicente Sotto III earlier cried foul over the allegation of Senators Pia Cayetano and Miriam Defensor-Santiago, cosponsors of SB 2865, that some senators were trying to torpedo the bill.

On Monday, Cayetano took the floor and manifested her desire to move for the termination of the period of interpellation. “There do not seem to be any other senators who have indicated their desire to interpellate,” she had said.

“I take exception to the fact that they mentioned the word ‘delay,’” Sotto said. “The last thing I would want to do is not discuss the RH bill. I want to discuss it because I want an intelligent vote from the members of the Senate. I want them to find out more about the bill, like what is happening in the House (of Representatives).”

Still in line to interpellate Cayetano and Santiago are Sotto, Enrile, Ralph Recto, Panfilo Lacson, Loren Legarda, Ramon Revilla Jr. and Lito Lapid. Lacson is the principal author of another version of the RH bill.

“We are not delaying. We still have plenty of questions… I have just started discussing the economic impact of this bill because I am concentrating on the population aspect. I have not yet dealt with the religious aspect. There is (also) a security aspect in this bill,” Enrile said.

“I would support this bill if it is only to provide health measures to womanhood. But this has an impact on our country and its future, not only in terms of health but (also) in terms of economic growth, its security and viability as a country.”

Early this year, the Reproductive Health Advocacy Network (RHAN) received P4.4 million from the United Nations Population Fund to push for the passage of the RH bill before the end of 2011. Dr. Junice Melgar, RHAN secretary general, admitted that her group solicited the amount because it “has no ongoing funding.”

Based on RHAN’s budget proposal, the amount was to be spent on activities such as “education and mobilization” program. One item worth P2,837,500 was to go to organize “two nationally coordinated (and) high-profile mobs.”

The group scheduled the “peak” of its pro-RH rally for September and set aside P1,750,000 to organize a rally of “at least 5,000 people.” Each participant was supposed to receive P350.

Enforce the sub-judice rule

2011-12-04T00:32:00.001+08:00

By JUSTICE MANUEL R. PAMARAN
Manila Bulletin
http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/343513/enforce-subjudice-rule

MANILA, Philippines — The recent filing of the criminal case against former President and now Congresswoman Gloria Macapagal Arroyo raises several public speculation on the case as to whether it will be fairly decided.

On this score the rule of sub-judice comes to play which rule the general public may not be fully aware hence a short discussion on the matter.

Sub-judice – under or before a judge or court; under judicial consideration: undetermined (Black Law Dictionary). In plain language, it is resolving or deciding of a pending case in court. Thus, for the sake of fairness, it shall not be commented on during its pendency. Doing so, shows lack of respect for the integrity and impartiality of the court and may prejudice the right of the parties. Like any other person, the judge may succumb or be influenced by it either deliberately or unconsciously.

For this reason, courts can cite for indirect contempt any improper conduct tending, directly or indirectly, to impede, obstruct, or degrade the administration of justice (Sec. 3 (d), Rule 71 of the Rules of Court). This proper conduct may be in the form of comments on the merits of the case like innocence or guilt of the accused, the credibility of the witness or the strength or the weakness of the case of the plaintiff and the defendant of vice-versa. The aforequoted rule is considered as a valid commitment of the constitutional right of freedom of speech.

However, despite its prejudicial effect, violation of sub-judice rule proliferates because of the failure of either parties or the court to have the violators of the rule cited for contempt or they themselves violate it. And then the losing party will complain that he did not get a fair trial or decision of the case but because of other consideration. On this score, for a fair and just administration of justice with the integrity of the court held in high esteem, the court and parties themselves, including the media in all forms, most refrain from making any comment on a case pending in court. In turn, the court should strictly enforce punitive action on any violation through contempt procedures either on its own initiative or upon complaint of the offended party.

And now is the time to do it before the administration of justice degenerates to a decision of the mob, especially when it involves the former President of the country.

President Aquino needs to focus on creating jobs

2011-12-01T14:51:00.001+08:00

Manila Times
Editorial
http://www.manilatimes.net/index.php/opinion/110-editorials/12320-president-aquino-needs-to-focus-on-creating-jobs

Many believed President Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino 3rd when he said that there would be no poverty if there were no corruption. The Filipino translation of that campaign slogan propelled the President to Malacañang. But after nearly a year and a half in office, what seems to be happening is a worsening of poverty and of the economy, even as the government tightens a “noose” around its prime target in the anti-graft campaign—former President Gloria Arroyo. Now that her case has started, we hope that the government will divert more of its attention to the economy, particularly on creating more jobs.

Palace officials seemed euphoric about Mrs. Arroyo’s arrest and trial, but the national attention was jolted back to reality by recent reports about the economy. GDP growth, a key indicator, fell to 3.6 percent, suggesting that the government will not reach its economic growth target this year. Worse, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicted that growth in Southeast Asia would remain low until 2016, the year President Aquino finishes his term.

The dismal economic data reports were preceded by other troubling news. The number of self-rated poverty and self-rated hunger grew, plus exports fell at its fastest pace. President Aquino and others in government pin the blame on external factors. True, there are serious global problems abroad, such as the economic turmoil in Europe, the weak US economy and surging oil prices. But, as many have also pointed out, our government is partly to blame.

Repeatedly, the authorities have been criticized for underspending. One of the most vocal critics is Dr. Benjamin Diokno, an economist from the University of the Philippines. He predicted that about P100 billion allocated for infrastructure and capital outlays that would have perked up the economy would not be spent this year. But he also saw the unspent funds being carried over to 2012 and added to the P265 billion budgeted for public spending, which would be a tremendous economic boost.

President Aquino, however, needs to move more quickly, work more effectively than he has. The dry season is ideal for construction projects, but it lasts only six months in the Philippines. The President and his team would need to hit the ground running, so to speak, in 2012.

New Year’s resolutions
We hope the President changes some of his economic beliefs and working attitudes next year. For one, he and his team need to lose the penchant for doling out money to reduce poverty and invigorate the economy. Congress has already given what President Aquino wants when it approved the P1.8-trillion national budget, which includes a hefty increase in the Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) program.

Instead of even more dole outs, creating employment should be Job No. 1 in 2012. Having more jobs addresses so many problems, not the least of which is poverty and the slow economy in general. President Aquino and his team could give the country an economic boost by simply spending the funds that he had requested from Congress.

Besides working harder and having plans with clear objectives and timetables, President Aquino needs to provide better leadership to his economic managers and others in his team. In 2012, for example, he should convene more Cabinet meetings to impress on his officials a greater sense of urgency in economic matters. President Aquino and his team not only needs to work longer and harder, but also smarter and with more determination to achieve objectives.

In defense of the President, his communications team had argued that Cabinet meetings were a waste of executive time. Besides, the team added, the President calls Cabinet clusters meetings regularly. The downward economic trends and low productive output of Malacañang and the Cabinet suggest that the laidback management style is not working. In management, the ability to get things done separates the good executives from the mediocre.

Last year, we wrote in this space that we want President Aquino to succeed. We still do, because his failures will be ours to bear. Conversely, his successes will be ours to enjoy. While many seem to be happy enough seeing the government chase after the Arroyos, we think that Filipinos would be more grateful if our leaders also focused on our other important needs—like job creation.

Contact Center Industry Accelerating Growth

2011-12-01T14:42:00.001+08:00

Manila Bulletin
http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/343203/contact-center-industry-accelerating-growth

MANILA, Philippines — The country’s call center industry expects to grow at a faster rate of 20 to 25 percent annually in the next five years as the economic crisis in the US and Europe would put pressures on the cost of companies making outsourcing and offshoring a very attractive option for companies.

Benedict Hernandez, president of the Contact Center Association of the Philippines (CCAP), told reporters that grow would be faster than their earlier projection of 15 to 20 percent growth until 2016.

“We earlier though growth rate would be closer to 15 percent until 2016, but now it’s in the 20 to 25 percent range,” said Hernandez. This augurs well for a sustained growth over the next five years.

Hernandez said the crises in the U.S. and Europe are cost pressures on companies to cut their expenses. With the crisis, more companies are now looking at offshoring and outsourcing their non-core functions.

“The crisis puts a lot of cost pressures on these companies which may now begin to accelerate their offshoring activities

“Despite the volume of activities already, there are still a lot of these companies which have yet to outsource, both US and non-US,” he said.

This means that growth in the next five years would be a combination of expansion and new investments in the offshoring and outsourcing business.

“There is still a lot of opportunities. Companies that have not yet outrsourced would start to look at this option,” he added.

Officially, however, the CCAP is going to stick to its forecast of 15 to 20 percent growth in revenues and a net growth of 400,000 employes by end of 2011.

For this year, CCAP projects to grow its revenues by 18 percent to $ 7.1 billion employing about 406,000 compared to last year’s $6.2 billion revenues and 344,000 workforce.

He recalled that at the height of the 2008 and 2009 global financial crisis, the industry grew “significantly." (BCM)

GDP: Terrible, why?

2011-12-01T14:16:00.001+08:00

JOHN MANGUN
OUTSIDE THE BOX
Business Mirror
http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/opinion/20042-gdp-terrible-why

ONE week ago, the title of this column was “2011: A Wasted Year.” There was some surprise in opening the e-mail Inbox and finding responses such as, “Noticed you haven’t been your usual positive self” and, “You really took a different route. No it’s not pessimistic; nonetheless you really painted a gloomy picture of 2011. So I thought I guess it was that bad for a positive person like you to write about it.”

That column was written before the third-quarter economic-activity numbers were released. There is one word to describe the Philippines’s economic performance: terrible.

The Philippines needs 4-percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth just to stay even. To register a 3.2- percent growth is to say the country is slipping. Further, the economy has been going in reverse for all of 2011 and it is not going to get any better, according to Trade Secretary Gregory L. Domingo. He believes the annual results for 2011 will be somewhere between 3.5 percent and 4 percent. Terrible.

And it gets worse.

While the GDP number was bad enough, the GNI (gross national income) growth was about five steps down from “terrible.”

GNI in the third quarter grew at 1.6 percent. In 2010, that growth was 6.9 percent. GNI measures all income, including from outside the country, from Shoemart malls in Guam to San Miguel beer operations in China.

But the secretary said he is confident the worse is over in terms of GDP growth. Ok, now I have moved in to the House of Pessimism.

In explaining the poor economic performance of the nation, Romulo A. Virola, secretary-general, NSCB, had this to say: “The so-called death spiral of debt that hounds our trading partners, the uninvigorating, albeit already expanded government spending, and the decline in fishing due to unfavorable weather and the high cost of fuel contributed to this relatively lethargic growth.”

Let me tell you about that “death spiral of debt”; it is getting worse and will continue to get worse. The European financial system is about a month or less from complete collapse. Multinational companies are drawing up contingency plans for the demise of the euro currency. The UK is making plans for potential riots and devastating social unrest. Germany cannot sell its bonds at an acceptable interest rate and Italy was forced to pay an interest rate 60-percent higher than last month. Now Europe is depending on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for money to bail the continent out of its problems. Depending on the IMF means depending on the US. If the US is going to be the financial savior of the world, I will move to “gloom-and-doom.” I think Secretary Domingo is a little too optimistic that the worst is over for the Philippine economy.

But that optimism is not what bothers me.

The debt death spiral has been a fact for three years. The situation has been progressing from the ICU to now, perhaps, the morgue. The administration has been in charge for 18 months. Surely someone must have known that the global situation was getting progressively worse, not better. What is to be done with the Philippines’s euro holdings as the currency falls in value? Where is the presidential folder containing the government’s contingency plan against more global meltdown? I bet Ramon Ang has one on his desk for the San Miguel group.

Sec-Gen Virola was being kind in calling government spending “uninvigorating.” When government spending falls 12 percent year-on-year, uninvigorating is an understatement. A decision was made by the government last year to reduce spending to make stronger the financial condition of the government. There is nothing wrong with that idea. However, when that decision was made, did anyone look at the potential negative consequences to the economy? That is what economic planners are supposed to do. And government policy-makers are supposed to balance benefits with disadvantages.

The government experts forecast that GDP growth for 2011 would be 4.5 percent. To date it is only 3.6 percent for nine months. The government blames the global debt, the weather, and the price of crude oil for missing that prediction by so much.

All of those factors are beyond direct control. However, they always have and always will be beyond control. So what exactly is the purpose of government economic planners?

In the US, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie said this about the failure of the Obama administration to reduce the budget deficit. “I was angry this weekend listening to the spin coming out of the administration. The President knew it was doomed for failure, so he didn’t get involved. Well then what the hell are we paying you for? What have you been doing, exactly?”

E-mail to mangun@gmail.com and Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by CitisecOnline.com Inc.

Bangon, Pilipinas

2011-11-30T14:58:00.001+08:00

Untitled from OgilvyOne Manila on Vimeo.

BCDA Monorail Project

2011-11-30T14:42:00.001+08:00

By Philippine Railways (http://www.youtube.com/user/philippinerailways#p/u/30/J9r-FMFyRRM)

PNR unit kiha 59 trial run

2011-11-30T14:29:00.001+08:00

By Philippine Railways (http://www.youtube.com/user/philippinerailways)

Hot money flows surge to $3.59b

2011-11-29T09:56:00.001+08:00

by Roderick T. dela Cruz
Manila Standard
http://www.manilastandardtoday.com/insideBusiness.htm?f=2011/november/28/business3.isx&d=2011/november/28

Global funds continued to flow to emerging markets such as the Philippines, with offshore investors infusing and retaining $3.59 billion of their capital as of Nov. 5.

Bangko Sentral data showed that despite the global uncertainties stemming from the European debt problems, foreign portfolio investments, or hot money, yielded a net inflow of $145 million in the first trading week in November.

A net inflow means foreign fund managers chose to retain a part of their gross investments in local stocks, government securities, peso time deposits and other money market instruments, instead of pulling them out of the local market.

Bangko Sentral deputy governor Diwa Guinigundo said the Philippines had become a net capital drawer since the start of the year, despite uncertainties in August and September after the credit rating of the United States was downgraded from its top-notch status.

“There was no month in 2011 when foreign portfolio investments registered a negative figure or net outflow,” said Guinigundo.

Gross investments of foreign capital funds actually rose 55 percent to $14.3 billion as of November 5 from $9.3 billion during the same period last year while withdrawals of these funds also surged 63 percent to $10.8 billion from $6.6 billion.

As a result, net inflows climbed 35 percent to $3.59 billion from $2.67 billion during the same period.

Guinigundo noted that businesses remained optimistic about the prospects in the Philippine economy, where output is expected to increase despite external challenges.

Emerging markets such as the Philippines became a magnet for global funds which are searching for higher-yielding investment instruments outside the United States, Europe and Japan. These markets continued to expand in terms of output and demand.

Guinigundo said six out of nine economic indicators in the Philippines continued to show an improvement, which is a sign that economic activities will be better in the fourth quarter.

The country’s gross domestic product grew 4 percent in the first half of 2011.

Helping an expert understand PHL

2011-11-29T09:49:00.001+08:00

JOHN MANGUN
OUTSIDE THE BOX
Business Mirror
http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/opinion/19929-helping-an-expert-understand-phl

ANOTHER expert has stepped up to tell the Philippines, to give the magic formula for the Philippines on its economy.

A doctor in economics from the Asian Development Bank pretty well trashed the Philippines in a speech before the 1st Manufacturers and Producers Summit last week. I was invited to be there, not as an expert, of course, but had a previous engagement.

That was probably a good thing for my blood pressure and the good doctor’s nose.

All these discussions start out the same. In this case it was the phrase a “diversified manufacturing sector.” Like I said, I have heard this all before.

Forget about the last 30 years when the Philippines could have, should have, would have. Let’s just talk about 2011.

Thailand is a great country. Nice elephants and cool rivers. The Philippines is always being compared to Thailand.

I did business there for three years in the mid-1980s, but the “experts” have all their statistics neatly lined up on a spreadsheet.

But the problem is that countries are different and the numbers mean and come from different experiences. That is what you would know if you were a “feet-on-the-ground” business person instead of an “expert.”

Thailand created the world’s highest economic growth rate from 1985 to 1996. Thailand has a lot of manufacturing. Therefore, so should the Philippines.

Now let’s do a reality check. You can get into a large truck carrying shipping containers and drive to each of Thailand’s five largest cities in about 24 hours. You can go to each of the Philippines five largest cities in 24 hours on an airplane. And you can drive that same truck in Thailand filled with manufactured goods for export directly to one of the largest seaports in the world, Singapore.

You think that fact might have some effect on the economic development of the two countries? The doctor-expert ignores that difference.

Thailand is the world’s biggest exporter of rice. The Philippines has been the world’s largest importer of rice. But Thailand has this “fact” on its border known as the Mekong River. Because Thailand sits in the Mekong River subregion, they do not have to bother much with irrigation like we do to grow rice. They also have the Chao Phraya, Mae Klong, Bang Pakong and Tapi rivers. We have the Cagayan River and the Davao River,which are actually better for rafting than for irrigation, although local farmers use them.

Maybe being in a river valley might contribute just a little to Thailand’s large rice crop.

Did you hear about the massive flooding that just happened in Thailand? It was a big news story. You know why? Because Thailand’s rice fields do not get wiped out by typhoons every year like in the Philippines.

Needless to say, tourism is big in Thailand and we need to do more. This is how Thailand does it.

According to research by Chulalongkorn University on the Thai illegal economy, prostitution in Thailand in the period between 1993 and 1995 made up around 2.7 percent of the GDP. A newer study says business is booming. One estimate published in 2003 placed the trade at $4.3 billion per year or now more than 3 percent of the Thai economy. I hope the US ambassador to Manila is reading this. It is believed that at least 10 percent of tourist dollars are spent on the sex trade. In other words, visitors to Thailand spend almost as much on sex as tourists to the Philippine spend on everything else.

Another thing the doctor said is that the Philippines cannot rely on call centers for economic growth. From the Philippine Star: “The booming BPOs provide short-term growth.” Obviously, he never talked to the people in the industry that have worked there for a decade and more.

“The industry only accepts college graduates. There are no job opportunities for those who don’t finish high- school or are only high-school graduates.” For the high school graduates, tens of thousands of BPO jobs have been created for guards, drivers, messengers, kitchen staff and janitors.

He is right. After having worked in the industry several years, I never met a summa cum laude from a five-star university working as an agent.

What I did see was thousands from the “Bundok State College” with a two-year degree making P15,000 a month with medical care and bonuses. And I have seen De La Salle graduates in economics working as tellers in a bank making P10,000 a month.

What do you think a call center is? A manufacturing plant, a factory that provides a service rather than goods? And we do not have to drive to Singapore to export it.

 ***

E-mail to mangun@gmail.com and Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by CitisecOnline.com Inc.

2011: A Wasted Year

2011-11-24T15:49:00.001+08:00

JOHN MANGUN
OUTSIDE THE BOX
Business Mirror
http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/opinion/19729-2011-a-wasted-year

ONCE again the Philippines is locked in political drama while economic issues are placed far on the back burner of government priorities.

The Aquino administration inherited an economy that survived well the first wave of the global meltdown. Given the public support during and after the last elections and a continued high approval rating, it was an opportunity to make some far-reaching proposals and create programs that would have had a very favorable impact both in the short and long term.

In the business community, while always skeptical of government, the Public-Private Partnership Program was greeted with optimism and even enthusiasm. This was to be the center point of the new government. Unfortunately, the PPP seems stillborn at best and aborted at worst.

There is a sharp contrast between what you can see economically at ground level and what the economic experts see while sitting on top of the mountain.

Business activity continues to be good. Go to the malls in Makati, for example, and you will find evidence of business being brisk. Travel to Davao City and see the huge revenues that the Shoemart group is generating for the local economy with their new mall.

Yet the World Bank has again lowered the economic growth forecast for the country. The World Bank at one time expected a near 5-percent growth. Now its projection is down to 4.2 percent.

The Philippines needs 4-percent gross domestic product growth just to stay where it is, to break even so to speak. Five-percent growth is acceptable as it keeps the economy a little ahead of the game. But 4.2 percent basically says that the nation, after some 18 months of the Aquino presidency, is no farther along, no better than when the President took office. This is not good at all.

While the Malacañang press releases harp about all the foreign investment that the President’s foreign trips have generated, the real numbers are dismal. The newspaper headlines say that foreign direct investment jumped 32 percent in the third quarter. The truth is that during January through September, a grand total of $2 billion had been invested in the Philippines. That is the equivalent of giving each man, woman and child in the country P1,000. It’s nothing near what the economy needs.

More could and would come if positive action on the economy was not just one of the priorities but the top priority of the government.

Several foreign chambers of commerce joined Philippine business groups to create a long wish list of things that the government must do both for local and foreign businesses. It is ridiculously long. However, the specifics are critically important. The government has yet to formulate a clear and concise policy on mining. There has been no movement on rationalizing the fiscal incentives for new investment. Nothing has been done to improve the build-operate-transfer law.

The key is that this list shows that in the last 18 months, economic policy decisions and laws dealing with the economy have been placed on hold.

A new and comprehensive framework for both local and foreign investment does not exist on paper, only in the mouths of the political leaders.

The current administration has done a good job of building on the government’s fiscal foundation laid by the last administration. The budget deficit is in good control. The amount of foreign-currency reserves actually makes the Philippines a creditor nation rather than a net borrower. It is very likely that the country will soon receive a credit-rating upgrade. But at what future cost?

Government spending primarily on infrastructure is down 12 percent since last year. That is a huge amount and would have made the difference between current expectations and a 5-percent growth rate.

The difference between the economy growing at 4.2 percent and 5.2 percent is enormous in terms of private wealth creation, taxes and investment for the future.

Because the government has not done an adequate job in 2011, 2012 growth will also be lower than an acceptable 5 percent.

The government has failed in its responsibility in 2011 to maximize economic growth. While it speaks of preparing and planning for any major global economic problems, at this point, it is all words.

It looks like 2012 may be a very difficult year for the global economy. The government may be forced to come in with more handouts, which would not be the case if had spent taxpayers’ money on projects in 2011 to create wealth. It’s like giving fuel subsidies to jeepney drivers, when government should be working instead on policies to ensure cheaper and adequate fuel supply.

And by some miracle if the world can come out of economic stagnation next year, once again the Philippines will be behind all the rest.

****

E-mail to mangun@gmail.com and Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by CitisecOnline.com Inc.

5 Clark Development Projects Pushed

2011-11-23T10:33:00.001+08:00

Involving Over P20-Billion Investments
By BERNIE CAHILES-MAGKILAT
Manila Bulletin
http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/342255/5-clark-development-projects-pushed

MANILA, Philippines — At least five major projects with estimated investments of over P20 billion will take off by 2012 in Clark Special Economic Zone including Megaworld’s P7-billion mix-use project beefing up the Freeport’s run as tourism destination and as the fulcrum of Central Luzon development.

In the pipeline now are at least five major projects that are expected to reinforce the Freeport’s reputation as both an investment and tourism destination, said Clark Development Corp. president Antonio Felipe Remollo.

The first project involves another world-class tourism blueprint – MegaWorld Corporation’s mixed-use project to be located in a 400-hectare area between the Clark Freeport Zone and the Clark Special Economic Zone.

This involves the construction of a mixed-use complex that features office, commercial, retail, and leisure, residential, health, and wellness components at a development cost of at least P7 billion.

At least 200 hectares was allotted for the CDC’s second project – the proposed Clark STAR, which stands for Sports, Training, Amusement & Recreation. Located at the sprawling Clark Highlands, Clark STAR is the perfect site for transport terminal, wakeboarding complex, soccer stadium, hotels and villas, athletes’ dormitories, nature and theme park, swimming center, boulevard and promenade, and athletes’ training ground.

The third project, meanwhile, is the Clark Highlands, formerly known as the Next Frontier located at the Sacobia Valley. It covers 10,684 hectares of land adjacent to the Clark Freeport will be developed into ICT parks, residential, light-industrial, agro-industrial, and tourism and leisure projects.

In April of next year, Korean firm Donggwang Clark Corporation is expected to complete its $200-million tourism-related project, which includes the Clark Sun Valley Golf Course located at main zone of the Freeport.

With the groundbreaking of this fourth Clark project, Donggwang is poised to be the new leader in tourism complex and golf course construction in the Philippines, Remollo said.

According to Remollo, the Korean firm will create a 304-hectare tourism complex with residence villas, water theme park, and various amenities. Complementing this is a 10-storey office and residential building – the biggest of its kind inside Clark.

While Tower 3 of Donggwang’s ODE County Officetel is already complete, February 2012 will see the completion of two of its other structures – Towers 1 and 2, said Remollo.

And lastly, expected to be completed by April 2013 is the proposed CDC Corporate Building, which will consolidate the various departments and offices in one modern, environment-friendly structure.

At present, departments and offices of the CDC’s Corporate Headquarters are located separately in nine different buildings and structures.

In the various conceptual studies currently under evaluation, the new corporate headquarters will also have provisions for commercial spaces for lease in the first two floors, with the rest of the building allotted for CDC administrative and executive offices.

Also, facilities for Morale, Welfare and Recreation (MWR) such as fitness gym, multi-purpose function hall, clinic, and a chapel will also be included in the building’s various amenities. (BCM)

Chasing GDP: Leadership scorecard

2011-11-22T17:22:00.001+08:00

MANNY B. VILLAR
ENTREPRENEUR
Business Mirror
http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/opinion/19630-chasing-gdp-leadership-scorecard

A SURVEY conducted by 60 Minutes and Vanity Fair on September 29 and October 2, 2011, showed that former President Ronald Reagan was the kind of president most Americans wanted to see at the White House amid the current economic difficulties in the United States.

According to the poll, 36 percent of the respondents said they wanted Reagan, who died in 2004, to lead the US out of the economic crisis, beating the late President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who was picked by 29 percent of the respondents.

The survey reports did not provide the reasons behind the respondents’ choice, but I believe they still remembered the performance of the US economy during Reagan’s two-term presidency compared with the present situation.

The US economy grew by 3.0 percent in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2010, a turnaround from the contraction by 0.337 percent in 2008 and 3.486 percent in 2009, when the US suffered its latest recession.

When Reagan was first elected on November 4, 1980 (at 69, the oldest man ever to be elected US president and broke his own record with his reelection on November 6, 1984, at age 73), the US was also in recession.

The 16-month recession in 1981 and 1982 was the longest on record for the US since World War II until the 18-month contraction in 2007-2009.

On the other hand, the 7.2-percent GDP growth rate in 1984 (under Reagan) was the highest since 1959.

From 1981 through 1988 (Reagan’s second term), annual GDP growth averaged 3.4 percent. In comparison, the GDP grew by an average of just 1.82 percent from 2000 through 2009.

By 1989, Reagan’s last year in office, the GDP was at $5.48 trillion, almost twice the size before he was first elected president.

The Reagan years also saw inflation slowing down from more than 13 percent in 1980 down to 4 percent in 1988. Reagan implemented sweeping economic initiatives, which became known as “Reaganomics,” advocating reduced tax rates to stimulate economic growth, controlling the money supply to reduce inflation and deregulating the economy to boost investments, among other things.

He also initiated one of America’s first public-private partnerships (so PPP is not an original idea from the Philippines) as a major part of his job-creation program (16 million new jobs were created during the Reagan presidency).

I decided to cite the recent survey by the two US poll entities and briefly recalled the performance of the US economy during Reagan as a fitting conclusion to this series of articles on the GDP and its relevance on the two major issues (investments and the poverty problem) that have, for many years, challenged Filipinos and the Philippine economy.

Actually, I believe the GDP is also related to a third issue: corruption. In my previous column I cited the simple equation between the GDP and poverty. Low GDP growth creates more poor people; conversely, high GDP growth reduces poverty.

Viewed from another perspective, if the drive against corruption results in underspending and, therefore, low GDP growth, then poverty will increase, which I believe creates a favorable environment for corruption. The less resources a person (including a government employee) has, the easier it is for him to succumb to the offer of bribe or to the opportunity to make a quick buck.

Thus, it exacerbates the corruption problem and negates the very objective of the drive against corruption. And, if high GDP growth is the ultimate solution to poverty, it is also the most effective and permanent solution to corruption.

Based on what I have discussed for the past three weeks, as well as the reference to President Reagan, the GDP is the scorecard of a country’s Chief Executive.

I like to think that Reagan became popular to many Americans for what he did to the US economy, because they benefited from the jobs he generated, the investments he attracted, and the stable inflation that he made possible.

The GDP numbers are like the grades that students receive, based on their performance in school. At the end of a president’s term, the GDP shows whether, like a student, he passes or fails, or whether he graduates with honors or flunks the course.

The big difference is that a student’s grades affect only him or his family, while the GDP scorecard affects not just a leader and his political career, but his country and millions of his countrymen.

You may send your comments/feedback to mbv_secretariat@yahoo.com.

China: Outside noisy, inside empty

2011-11-22T16:50:00.001+08:00

JOHN MANGUN
OUTSIDE THE BOX
Business Mirror
http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/home/opinion/19631-china-outside-noisy-inside-empty

IN 1295, Marco Polo returned to Venice after 24 years of travels and told of his adventures in China. That was the beginning of the West’s knowledge of China, the Middle Kingdom.

The only problem is that Marco Polo probably never went to China and all that he said about the Chinese were fabrications and lies. He claimed he was the governor of Yang-Chou (now Yangzhou) for three years under the Mongol Emperor Kublai Khan. Yet, in The Travels of Marco Polo, a 13th-century travelogue written down by Rustichello da Pisa from stories told by Marco Polo, the traveler never mentioned the Great Wall, the fact that the Chinese drank tea (not brought to Europe until 400 years later), Chinese calligraphy, or ceramic movable type and mechanized printing.

It seems like tea and the Great Wall might have stood out as something to remember to tell the folks back home.

The stories that Polo told were probably secondhand tales gained from talking to merchants and traders who traveled the Silk Road through Central Asia. Ultimately, Polo’s tales were probably nothing more than an example of the Chinese proverb, outside noisy; inside empty.

However, the bits and pieces of his story were fascinating to the European readers although they never received anything near an accurate picture of China. It’s now 2011 but the world still does not have a true picture of China, just short glimpses that are false.

China is a dictatorship similar to North Korea, Venezuela and Cuba. By definition, a dictatorship is a form of government that has the power to govern without consent of those being governed. A dictatorship serves one purpose and lives for one goal: to remain in power as long as possible. Threats of violence, strict enforcement of loyalty to the leadership, and economic control are the normal methods.

With its more than 1 billion population, China uses economic control as its primary method.

But China is not an efficient dictatorship as it is a dictatorship by committee. Hu Jintao is the general secretary of the Communist Party of China and president. However, the farther China moves from the individual dictatorship of Mao Zedong, the leader becomes more of the public face of the Politburo Standing Committee rather than the “boss.”

The global economic meltdown that started in 2007 threatens Chinese leadership in a way not seen before. The so-called democratic uprisings over the years have been appeased by increasing national and personal wealth, even more so since 2007. But the bubble is drastically bursting.

The central government knows that it cannot stop a rebellion of literally hundreds of millions of people and that rebellion is its greatest fear. And nothing can get the people to the streets faster than an economic downturn. Witness Greece, Italy, and to a lesser extent, the US.

China’s economy is in the beginning stages of a meltdown.

In 2009, the first full year of the Chinese stimulus plan, they dumped $1.1 trillion into a then $4.3-trillion economy. Talk about pump priming. The Chinese created growth—along with a property bubble, a stock-market bubble, and an inflation bubble.

Car sales have decreased nearly 5 percent since last year, and property values are beginning to plummet in key markets, with prices down 30 percent this October in Shanghai alone.

In the spring of 2010, the Chinese state electrical grid reported 64.5 million apartments showed no electricity usage for the previous six months. Those units represent housing for 200 million people. The Beijing government funded the building of another 30 million to 50 million more apartment units. That is a real-estate bubble.

The National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing said growth was 9 percent in the third quarter 2011. Yet electricity usage was up only 3 percent. A manufacturing-based economy does not work that way.

Larry Lang is chair professor of finance at the Chinese University of Hong Kong and well-known Chinese television personality. He believes the economy actually shrank by 10 percent so far in 2011. He says every province in China is Greece because of massive debt that is not included in official reports.

To control inflation, which Lang believes is running at 16 percent, the government is tightening on spending, causing the bubbles to burst. That tightening is having an effect. The Shanghai Composite Index is down 20 percent from its 2011 high. It was up 80 percent in 2009.

Finally, survey after survey shows that the rich and super-rich Chinese are making plans to leave, buying houses abroad and many already moving their families.

When China falls, the global debt circle will be complete. No wonder the Philippines is the investment “Dark Horse” of Asia.

E-mail to mangun@gmail.com and Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock-market information and technical analysis tools provided by CitisecOnline.com Inc.

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And now our national hangover

2011-11-21T18:34:00.001+08:00

CTALK
By Cito Beltran
The Philippine Star
http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?publicationSubCategoryId=64&articleId=750392

While it was generally popular to “bring Gloria Arroyo to justice”, some of the people in the parade seemed to overlook the repercussions of last week’s event.

After a week of high drama concerning the political “dodge ball” fight between the Aquino administration and the family of former President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, a number of important and concerned citizens are worried about the “hangover” and the repercussions of what just happened.

Yesterday Senior Columnist Mr. Federico Pascual correctly expressed a view shared by several observers that former President Arroyo has become the perfect whipping “girl” and poster child of evil for the Aquino administration.

Pascual is not alone in pointing out that without Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, PNoy and company would have nothing to distract the public from our increasing unemployment, excessive under employment, legalized union busting in the form of “contractualization”, and the nationwide crime wave, not to mention the administration’s perceived under achievement.

Beat up and burn a witch at the stake and even the worst Prayle can look like Prince Charming. There is however always a price to pay. Call it cosmic karma or backlash if you wish but now, a number of businessmen and politicians have reason to be afraid.

If the Aquino administration forcefully and successfully “charged and arrested” Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, openly defied a lawful order of the Supreme Court and ignored parliamentary courtesy, then it follows that the Aquino administration can do unto us what they have done to Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.

Beyond legal maneuverings and press releases, last week’s event may be inspirational to believers of a benevolent and wise leader. But in the hands of malevolent Kings or desperate people around him, last week’s series of event has struck fear and misgivings in the heart of businessmen, even for me as a Journalist.

What safeguards and restraints are left to protect people if the very instruments designed to insure check and balance between the three branches of government can simply be disregarded or rendered useless through double-talk?

It would be a good thing if the relentless almost obsessive pursuit of justice, were focused on real criminals or real crooks by truly dedicated lawyers and civil servants. But in the real world, we have seen and heard enough about how during Martial Law, minions, partners and petty followers of Ferdinand Marcos, used Martial Law to settle grudges and punish people particularly in politics, business and media.

I can tell our readers how my father Louie Beltran, was charged for libel by Cory Aquino because of the persistent whispers of two cabinet members whom my father continuously exposed and criticized for abuse of power, womanizing and one being a communist coddler. In the end, Cory’s benevolence succumbed to the poison and deceit of her advisers.

What guarantees are left those made with saliva, that our rights and legal remedies will be protected? If they hate you enough or want your money desperately enough, last week’s events gives all of us serious reasons to be worried. If the businessmen were concerned, if I as a Journalist am concerned, you can only imagine what foreign investors are thinking about the Philippines and our justice system.

As one businessman put it: the TRO that Justice Secretary Leila De Lima disobeyed and disregarded, is the very same instrument that is used to stop toll hikes, new taxes, suspicious transactions of government agencies, proclamations or executive orders as well as local government orders. That TRO is just like the TRO’s that courts issue to protect lives and properties and intervene in life and death medical issues.

TROs are there for everyone’s protection. TROs protect the interests of the State when needed and TROs are there to protect citizens from the State if necessary. Last week, an official of the state, named Leila De Lima showed us that such a protection only applies to the interest of the state.

Which why I wonder how people at the Supreme Court arrived at the opinion that what Secretary de Lima did was an act of “Indirect Contempt” only? That may be so if we were to limit the argument to the Arroyo case. But it is not. The big picture and the contemptible act was that the instrument of the Supreme Court or the judiciary for that matter was disobeyed and rendered “inutile”.

In a way, that sets a precedent of sorts where a government official or an elected member of the legislature can cite the De Lima “case” as valid or historical grounds to disobey or disregard a TRO or any court order for that matter.

In the extreme, the BIR can impose taxes on their own and who’s to stop them, certainly not a TRO? Tollways can now raise their toll rates; Meralco and the Telecoms can now boost their charges and who’s to stop them, definitely no longer a TRO.

Given the contempt that the Aquino administration has for members of the Supreme Court, it is clear that the Supreme Court now finds itself in a corner, their TRO ending up as “Filed” and failed, and now facing the even more difficult test on what to do in this situation. They have no real army or police to enforce their will or their orders.

Now is the time when our courage will be tried and our institutions tested. Will the Supreme Court punish Secretary De Lima as they should and do they have courage enough to discover if our institutions are strong and true enough to over come political bravado and animosity. We will learn in a matter of days.

Please allow me to make it clear: I have nothing personal, professional or political against Secretary Leila de Lima. She has worked hard to get where she is, and achieve what she wants, I will however, not stand idly by if her pursuit endangers my rights and the rights of others, and as well as endanger our institutions.

* * *

For comments or invitations pls email: Utalk2ctalk@gmail.com

Why tourists are not coming

2011-11-21T18:20:00.001+08:00

Phl one of most liberalized in terms of air access
Philstar
http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?publicationSubCategoryId=66&articleId=732243

MANILA, Philippines - A tourism group has debunked the recurring claim by open skies advocates that the Philippines needs to further open up its skies to attract more tourists as it revealed information that the country is one of the most liberalized in terms of air access by foreign carriers.

“Open skies advocates have been harping on the need for full open skies to attract more tourists but in reality we have already a very liberalized air policy as shown by the Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2011 of the World Economic Forum,” Robert Lim Joseph, founder of TourismWatch Philippines, said.

Joseph said based on the report, the Philippines is ranked 29 out of 139 countries in terms of “Openness of bilateral Air Service Agreements.”

He said although the Philippines is number 29 in terms of openness, tourists are still not coming in droves compared to its Southeast Asian neighbors like Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia.

Besides being exceedingly open to foreign carriers, the Philippines ranks number 30 out of 139 countries in terms of “Available seat kilometers, international.”

“This all proves that the poor performance of our tourism sector is not about accessibility to Philippine air market and availability of airline seats but other factors,” he said.

For ticket taxes and airport charges, the Philippines ranked 20 in the world out of 139 countries “so we cannot understand the rantings of the lobbyists to cancel our taxes on foreign carriers when this is not the issue.”

Joseph cited the reasons why tourists hesitate to visit the Philippines based on the findings of the report.

He said the Philippines ranks 112 in terms of quality of air transport infrastructure; 99 in terms of effectiveness of marketing and branding; 132 in terms of hotel rooms; 123 in terms of transparency of government policymaking; 105 in terms of reliability of police services; 109 in terms of safety and security; 114 in terms of quality of roads (specially to tourist destinations), and 70 in terms of government prioritization of the travel and tourism industry.

Joseph said these are the factors that the government should look into and address to boost tourism.

Aquino’s double kill of Arroyo sends chills down public’s spine

2011-11-21T13:28:00.001+08:00

Analysis
By: Amando Doronila
Philippine Daily Inquirer
http://opinion.inquirer.net/17677/aquino%E2%80%99s-double-kill-of-arroyo-sends-chills-down-public%E2%80%99s-spine

Immediately after setting foot on Philippine soil on Saturday from the Asean summit forum in Indonesia, President Aquino plunged into a blistering action to deliver the coup de grace on his arrested adversary, former President and now Pampanga Representative Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

On his arrival statement at Villamor Air Base, the impatient President didn’t allow the grass to grow under the feet.
Immediately following the filing of criminal charges against Arroyo for alleged electoral sabotage, Mr. Aquino said the arrest “is just the start of the process” of prosecuting the former President.

Arroyo became the second Philippine leader to be jailed after Joseph Estrada who was arrested on charges of plunder in April 2001. This warning is ominous.

In an effort to rally public support for the swift incarceration of Arroyo—after a day in which the process of filing charges and serving of the arrest warrant on her was completed from dawn to dusk, a speed unprecedented in the annals of the Philippine judicial system—Mr. Aquino promised to accord her due process.

“She will have an equal opportunity to defend herself in court because that is the right of every Filipino,” he said. “That is the process that a vendor or driver, teacher or garbage collector, cop or clerk, from the highest position down to the ordinary person, should all go through, taking no sides, simply focused on the search for truth and making the guilty accountable.”

The President expressed confidence that the Filipino people were behind his effort to prosecute those behind alleged election fraud in the past.

“And it is very good to know that even from the start, even while I was outside the country, you are all behind me, especially on this issue,” he said. “I know that I am not alone. As I think about your welfare, you continue to give me strength.”

He added that the prosecution was the result of the “reform I have laid out to combat corruption.”

The core principle of this program is this, he said, “the guilty should be made accountable because if not, it would be like we have kept the door open to anyone who would want to abuse our people.”

Public lynching

The impromptu speech served notice that the President, in kick-starting the prosecution, has opened a new round of public lynching of Arroyo, aimed at winning public opinion behind his actions intended to send her to jail indefinitely by Christmas.

Following her arrest, Arroyo is languishing at St. Luke’s Medical Center in Taguig City, being treated for a bone disease, and awaiting to stand trial in the Pasay City Regional Trial Court.

In a day, Friday’s breathtaking developments unfolded, including:

(1) The government slammed the door shut on an attempt by Arroyo to fly out to Hong Kong last Tuesday to seek medical treatment abroad in defiance of the Supreme Court, which issued a TRO (temporary restraining order) which sought to stop the justice department from implementing its directive that banned the departure of Arroyo who was put on its watch-list order (WLO).

(2) In blocking the departure, the justice department, by disobeying the execution of the TRO, put the administration on a head-on confrontation with the high court.

(3) While the high court rejected the government’s petition for reconsideration of its TRO, the administration undercut the high tribunal by rushing the criminal complaint against Arroyo within a day, to enable it to file the case with the Pasay City RTC on Friday and consequently gave it an excuse to stop her departure. The complaint handed the administration the key to arrest Arroyo and hold her indefinitely on the grounds that electoral sabotage is a crime that is nonbailable—with the effect that she would be under custody as a government captive indefinitely.

De Lima’s rule

While the justice department refused to implement the high court’s TRO, Justice Secretary Leila de Lima arbitrarily called the shots by interpreting the court’s order as a super-high court without a constitutional mandate, with its own version of the rule of law and due process.

De Lima said the warrant for Arroyo’s arrest had rendered “moot” the issues arising from the high court’s TRO. She claimed that with the warrant of arrest, Arroyo “is compelled to stay in the country and face the charges of electoral sabotage, bringing us closer to uncovering the truth behind the controversies surrounding the 2007 elections.”

De Lima gave assurance the government would uphold “every right that Arroyo is entitled under the Constitution.” This remains to be seen.

The arbitrary and summary manner in which the government rushed and abridged legal procedures did not inspire confidence in the government’s assurances of a fair trial.

True, the issuance of the arrest order averted a damaging showdown between the administration and the high court.
While the issue raged over the immediate compliance of the TRO, the government was on a mode to disobey the court and the airport was barricaded with the immigration and airport authorities acting like human Sherman tanks that would have made it extremely impossible to crash through in Arroyo’s state of health. Authorities were taking orders from the justice department that was fanning the flames of disobedience.

The police and the state’s forces of coercion were arrayed to follow the standing policy determined to prevent Arroyo from leaving at all cost so she could face trial.

Mr. Aquino laid down the rule, saying, “We need her here for her arraignment if this will be needed. If she won’t return, how can she be made answerable?”

Hypocrisy

On Friday, De Lima said Mr. Aquino wanted Arroyo to be treated with “utmost respect.”

The hypocrisy of this statement stood out in bold relief against the deployment of awesome state resources to deliver results on a government’s obsessive policy of accountability and transparency.

The rush to judgment in the preparation of the electoral sabotage complaint is not a shining demonstration of the government’s devotion to due process. It’s full of short-cuts.

Prior to the filing of the case, the target of the all-out offensive to bring Arroyo to court had been subject to an intense trial by publicity.

The immediate consequence of the showdown between the President and the Supreme Court is that it diminished the credibility of the high tribunal as an independent institution.

The disobedience to the TRO reduced the court into a toothless arbiter of justice.

The test of will between the court and Mr. Aquino highlights the President’s no-holds-barred approach in conflicts with other constitutional institutions.

It threw into bold relief a presidential tendency to follow a winner-take-all course of action.
The winner determines all rules of justice and combat.

Mafiosi’s final solution

This is why the new round of public campaign to get the people behind the decision to arrest Arroyo and hold her indefinitely is sending chills down the spine of the public.

It follows the pattern of ruthless retribution in the gangster underworld when dealing with mobsters who betray their illegal operations to lawmen.

In the Mafia, the squealers are first battered to death with baseball bat at dinner—and given the finishing touches. They are shot by the Mafiosi to make sure they are dead.

The issues and context of the Mafia final solution are different from those surrounding the campaign to bring the targets of the government’s daang matuwid crusade.

The President and his minions are not Mafiosi, but it’s the “final solution” method that leaves many Filipinos full of fears.

I am uncertain about how Arroyo would survive this new round of trial by publicity—in captivity.

P50-M Jolo Port rehabilitation up

2011-11-20T16:59:00.001+08:00

To promote Sulu’s economic growth
By NONOY E. LACSON
Manila Bulletin
http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/341932/p50m-jolo-port-rehabilitation

JOLO, Philippines – The Department of Transportation and Communications (DoTC) has allotted some P50 million to jump start the improvement and rehabilitation of the inter-island port here to serve as gateway for economic development in the province of Sulu.

Representative Habib Tupay Loong (1st District, Sulu) said the DoTC granted the amount to the Philippine Ports Authority (PPA) to initially start the face-lifting and improvement of the Jolo Port.

In a letter to PPA General Manager Juan Sta. Ana, DoTC Undersecretary Rafael Antonio Santos disclosed that the amount of P50 million has been included in the proposed infrastructure budget of the department for the rehabilitation and upgrading of the port.

Adding that in order to ascertain the required funding for future programming to complete the expansion of the Jolo port, “we would appreciate receiving the overall investment requirement, pursuant to the feasibility study which you office is currently preparing.”

At present, Loong said, a feasibility study is being conducted by the PPA to determine the cost of the improvement of the port, and how long it will take for PPA to implement the project.

He also said that officers of the Science and Vision consulting firm had recently met with Sulu Governor Abdusakur M. Tan before they started the conduct of a study to improve the port here.

Engineer Jameson Lee, a principal engineer of the project, said that the initial phase of the port rehabilitation would be to have a feasibility study to maximize the potential of the facility – based on the socio-economic profile of the province.

“The Science and Vision consulting firm will be conducting the study, the same firm that we commissioned to do the study for the Davao and Zamboanga Port,” Lee added.

“The study has a budget of P4.3 million, and will have a timeframe of six months, and will include tourism, international standards, local economic development, port management, and other concerns,” Engineer Malou Mamatad, head consultant of the consulting firm, said.

As this developed, local traders and residents here lauded Loong and Tan for their joint effort that made possible the improvement and repair of the Jolo Port.

The two top officials here are now known as “partners in the development, and united in the vision of making Sulu reach its full economic potential.”

“To have an updated port facility, especially in this part of the country, is of great importance, a vital component of sustainable economic growth,” Tan and Loong jointly said.

According to Loong, the PPA officials and consultants were impressed by the socio-economic profile of the province, which is expected to bring economic and political change in the area.